Shi Yongqing: 3 factors in the property market without burst fire risk
Zhongyuan Group Chairman and President Shi Yongqing that the property market is not healthy, but from the three factors can be proved the property market has not burst the risk of burning, including: no over-construction, no excessive lending, and property prices are not out of line with the purchasing power of investors.
According to the Centaur-City Leading Index (CCL), the latest report of 159.88 points, compared with 100 points in July 1997, nearly 60%, followed by the financial turmoil, property prices fell year after year, to 2003 Tired into 7 to stabilize. Who have been negative assets of the people still lingering fear, but 20 years later, property prices have hit a record high, buyers flocked to the market, the property market will repeat the mistakes of 20 years ago?
Shi Yongqing interview with this newspaper, said the property market burst pot, at least three objective conditions to trigger. The first is over-construction. When the housing supply is too much, the market has no housing and waste. However, the problem facing Hong Kong is that the supply is inadequate.
17,000 copies of this year is still less than 97 completed less
As early as 97 years, the Government had proposed the “80 000” scheme (the sum of public and private housing supply), such as private housing, in the five years from 1997 to 2001, the average annual private building was about 25,500 Between 2012 and 2016, the average annual private building is only about 12,000, less than half of the year. In the first four months of this year, about 5,400 units were completed, and the Department estimates that about 17,000 completed this year, but still less than the average of the year.
The second is the excessive borrowing, Shi Yongqing that now has 6% of the owners have been for the property; Moreover, the actual interest rate is only about 1.8%, the banks have 3% pressure test, compared to 97 years, up to 10% Pressure test, the current commitment to people’s defense significantly increased. Despite the fact that there are developers who offer non-pressureable high-yield mortgages, they are of the view that the number of buyers is only a small number and that these shorter mortgage periods will eventually be made to the bank.
Property prices and then washed down half a year rose 5 to 10%
The last trigger is that property prices are out of touch with market purchasing power. “It is undeniable that the property market is unhealthy, property prices are indeed too high, and the user’s purchasing power out of line, but recently a lot of new disk to sell, still showing the scene of thousands of empty, it reflects the market is not no funds to buy, And investors’ preferences are not out of touch, because property prices have burst over, and for wealthy investors, the wealth has increased, making them more rejuvenated and investing in the market. “He added that the total bank deposits in 1997 were only about 2.7 Trillion yuan, today there are 11.7 trillion yuan, more than 3 times the year, the proliferation of market funds, is to promote the main driving force for rising property prices.
Moreover, he borrowed for 97 years to buy rent for comparison, when the owners pay the money for the floor, the current interest rate, vacancy rate is low, easy to find tenants, buy rent or even repay the principal of the loan to attract investors Into the market. Therefore, the current three trigger the property market burst pot conditions, still did not appear. Shi Yongqing that the property market is still motivated and then rush to encounter resistance, I believe the second half of property prices still have 5% to 10% increase.