21/6/2018-1

3 factors trapped in Hong Kong stocks at the end of the month the most difficult to call the low-store increase Welcome to the performance of counterattacks in August

Hong Kong stocks tended to fluctuate in the first half of the year and Zhang Yidong, the best strategy analyst for New Fortune Hong Kong stocks in 2017, had accurately predicted that the market would enter the adjustment period this year. With the formal opening of the Sino-US trade war, Zhang Yidong believed that from late June to early July is the “time for adjusting the most uncomfortable”. However, it is necessary to grasp the right time to increase positions to meet the counterattack of the big city at the end of August, but it is still difficult to find in the second half of the year. Break through the high of the beginning of the year.

ADR fell 180 points in afternoon market Tencent fell 7 yuan

Zhang Yidong, chief global strategist of Xingye Securities and deputy chief executive of Xingguo International (08407), said in an exclusive interview with this newspaper that this year is an adjustment period for Hong Kong stocks and is currently plagued by three major risks: (1) Sino-US trade disputes, ( 2) Chinese and foreign liquidity tightened, and (3) fundamentals slipped. “At the end of June, it was the most difficult time for the big city, but once the bad money cleared, the big market would have a chance to counterattack.” Hong Kong stocks are expected to be at 28,000. Walk within the 34,000-point big frame.

Hong Kong stocks closed on the Dragon Boat Festival. US stocks suffered pressure in the early stages of the previous night. As of 11:30 last night, Tencent (00700) listed ADRs in the United States at a price of 403 yuan, which was 7 yuan less than the closing price on Friday in Hong Kong. And the overall blue chip ADR performance, equivalent to the Hang Seng Index fell 180 points.

Trade wars opened or stabilized in the mainland

The United States imposed a tariff of US$50 billion on China’s imported goods last Friday. Zhang Yidong stated that this is a relatively poor result in this round of Sino-US trade war, but it will not hinder the overall situation and have an impact on China’s economy with a large domestic demand market. Limitedly, when the negative factors are fully reflected, the intensity of the Chinese economy’s short-term stability will be expected to increase, and there will even be opportunities for more active fiscal policies, such as the reduction of the standard.

“The risk of trade friction between China and the United States will be released before the end of the month. It is now the darkest. Although the relevant risks will exist in the second half of the year, the market has gradually adapted to Trump (President of the United States) and its impact on the stock market will also be reduced. He pointed out that trade disputes are continuous wars and change the strategy of cooperation and win-win in the past. In addition to China and the United States, the United States and the European Union also have frictions.

Involved liquidity tightened Fundamental weakness

The tightening of liquidity is another risk that haunts Hong Kong stocks. “At present, it is the time when funds are the most intense.” Zhang Yidong believes that the strong US economy will attract more capital to the local market. The Fed’s hawkish statement also makes the US dollar stronger. Fortunately, the European Central Bank’s monetary policy is more conservative, and the liquidity in overseas markets has not been tight, but European and American currencies Normalization of policies is a major trend.

In terms of capital funds in the Mainland, the central government’s firm confidence in de-leveraging, in line with the policy of de-capacity and destocking, credit will surely tighten, and the factors in the first half of the year will add to the tight liquidity. However, he believes that the central government will have a bottom line when it comes to depreciation, and if necessary, it can anticipate the risk of money shortages through policies such as RRR cuts or targeted placements.

The third risk is that the fundamentals have weakened. More and more people are worried about the economic slowdown or even a hard landing in the Mainland. He pointed out that the impact of the continuous decline of social financing on the economy will be reflected in the middle and later quarters of the second quarter. Therefore, the macroeconomic data in May may have deteriorated. However, based on the structural transformation of the Chinese economy, even if the growth rate is slowing down, there will be no systemic risk. .

Hong Kong stock slow cow at the top of the bull market

“Currently, it is the process of climbing the three major risks. It is therefore the most difficult time for the adjustment period, and it is also the best point for adding positions.” Zhang Yidong said that the valuation of Hong Kong stocks is relatively low. Now, as long as the accumulation of chips, dips to buy high-quality core assets, When the results are released at the end of August, the market will be able to use the good news of better performance to fight back.

Hong Kong stocks bullish market Zhang Yidong stressed that the Hong Kong stock market’s bull market has been slow. HSI is currently at the top of the bottom of the bull market. The short-term market is slightly negative. As the market continues to digest the normalization of European and U.S. currency interest rates and the risk of deleveraging in the Mainland. It is more difficult to break new heights, but this year is to build a foundation for the bull market in the next three to five years. The situation is like Hong Kong stocks’ apparent pressure from 2003 to 2004. Since 2005, it has been restarted, breaking the previous high and entering the bull market. .