The strictest regulation in Beijing’s history for two years, the price of property fell by more than 10%, and the transaction was almost “waist".
The most severe property market regulation policy in Beijing history has been implemented for two years. Under the influence of dozens of regulatory policies, the volume of new homes in Beijing is almost “waist", and commercial housing transactions have fallen to the bottom, and second-hand Property prices fell by 11.3%. Regarding the future trend of property prices, experts analyzed that although the Beijing market has recovered somewhat, it has not yet returned to the state before the regulation. In the future, the Beijing property market will continue to maintain its “low-level stable operation".
Second-hand property prices have stopped falling this year
In order to guide the property market back to rationality, on March 17, 2017, Beijing introduced the most stringent regulation and control policy in the history of “recognition of housing loans”, and subsequently issued a plan to increase the ratio of two down payment, lower the maximum loan period, and purchase residential flats. And other policies, then require non-Beijing-based homebuyers to pay taxes for 60 consecutive months, “two sets of mortgages within one year of divorce", and implement “three no policies" for atypical houses such as aisles, garages, corridors, etc., successively introduced More than 30 control policies, recruiting swords refers to investing in speculative real estate.
The combination of boxing control policies has made the Beijing property market cool down significantly. According to statistics from Centaline Property, from March 18, 2017 to March 14, 2019, Beijing’s new homes sold 50,643 units, a decrease of 48.5% compared with 98,399 units two years ago, setting a record low.
In the past two years, the biggest hit and the biggest drop was “commercial housing." According to statistics from the Central Plains real estate, the actual contracted amount of “commercial housing” has only 9000 sets in the past two years, a decrease of 91% compared with the previous period.
According to industry analysis, the volume of Beijing’s new home market has rebounded slightly in the bottom in 2018 after experiencing bottoming out in 2017. Affected by the gradual entry of shared housing and limited-price housing projects, as well as the restrictions on the pre-sale and online price of pure high-end commercial housing, since the “3.17″, the price of new homes in Beijing has not risen sharply, the control effect is obvious, and the market returns to rationality. The rapid rise in housing prices has been effectively curbed.
The volume of new homes and commercial housing has shrunk, and the second-hand housing market has also entered the downward channel. According to data from the Shell Research Institute, after the “3.17” regulation, the price of second-hand buildings in Beijing fell for 9 consecutive months, with a cumulative decline of 13.5%. After the Spring Festival in 2018, under the influence of seasonal recovery and school district housing policy, the average price of second-hand buildings has rebounded after 8 months from March, and the average price has fallen by 3.3% year-on-year.
Since the beginning of 2019, with the release of the previous backlog demand, the average price of second-hand buildings in Beijing has stopped falling. Chain home data shows that in February 2019, the average price of second-hand buildings in Beijing was 59,998 yuan / ping, down 11.3% from the March 2017 high.
Fully squeeze the speculative demand
In the past two years, speculative demand for housing investment has been squeezed. According to data from the Shell Research Institute, in the fourth quarter of 2018, Beijing’s main agent to account for investment demand was only 1.2%. Second-hand housing transactions are mainly for the first-time home buyers and home buyers, and the real estate market is gradually returning to rationality.
Xu Xiaole, chief market analyst at Shell Research Institute, said that under the influence of strict regulatory policies, the Beijing real estate market has achieved significant results, and the transaction volume has been adjusted to a medium-level historical level, with prices falling more than 10%.
In response to the trend of the Beijing property market in the future, Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Zhongyuan Real Estate, said that although the Beijing market has recovered somewhat, it has not recovered to the state before the regulation. According to the attitude of the regulatory authorities, there is no fundamental loosening of the regulatory policies. Therefore, in the future, the Beijing property market will continue to be in a state of “low-level smooth operation”.
The industry believes that with the large-scale launch of projects with shared property rights and housing prices, Beijing’s new home market will bid farewell to the state of oversupply for many years, and some regions may even experience oversupply. In 2019, the Beijing new home market will continue to maintain a stable trend, and the transaction volume will increase slightly.
Joan restarts commercial mortgage to provide provident fund
[Anxun] Hainan Provincial Housing Provident Fund Administration announced yesterday that it will restart the acceptance of individual commercial housing mortgage loans to housing provident fund loans in accordance with the relevant requirements, in conjunction with the actual situation in Hainan Province, and issue them to the directly affiliated administrations and the entrusted loan banks. Notice on the Measures for the Administration of Personal Commercial Housing Mortgage Loans to Housing Provident Funds in Hainan Province. It is understood that the above-mentioned “Administrative Measures" and the “Interim Measures for the Transfer of Personal Commercial Housing Mortgage Loans to Housing Provident Funds in Hainan Province" issued on September 30, 2015 mainly include loan objects, loan quotas, application materials, and contractors. Changes in one aspect. Among them, the scope of loan expansion will be expanded; the maximum amount of loan quota will be adjusted. The maximum loan amount in the original interim measures is 500,000 yuan, and the balance of the original commercial loan is not exceeded. The current plan is adjusted to 700,000 yuan and does not exceed the balance of the original commercial loan; ; and relax the bank’s hosting requirements.