22/11/2017-2

Goldman Sachs expected rate hike next year less beautiful

The Goldman Sachs earlier released a report that the U.S. will raise interest rates four times next year. Dean at Goldman Sachs Asia Pacific chief economist said that at present the U.S. interest rate is still at a low level. In the face of the economic growth and the low unemployment rate and the prevention of high inflation, the United States will have the opportunity to raise interest rates four times next year and raise interest rates by a total of one PCT

Deng Minqiang, a senior Chinese economic analyst at Goldman Sachs, pointed out that as the Hong Kong dollar and the U.S. dollar are the linked exchange rates, Hong Kong will immediately follow the US rate hike but the rate hike may be lower than that of the U.S.A. We believe the property market will have little impact.

Deng Minqiang pointed out that the bank expects the global economy to improve and Hong Kong will also benefit from it. Even if the interest rate increases, it will not be too concerned about the overall property market. He also predicts that Hong Kong’s economic growth will reach 3.5% to 4% this year. However, with the rise in interest rates, the impact of Hong Kong dollar strength on consumption and rising wages to boost inflation, the growth is expected to slow to 2.5% to 3 next year %.

On the mainland side, Goldman Sachs expects China’s economic growth will be 6.8% this year, but slowed to 6.5% next year. Next year will face a number of risk factors, including the property market cooling and the credit crunch. However, due to the favorable global economic conditions, exports will still show strong growth. Dean Bamboo said that strengthening the deleveraging policy in the Mainland and the drop in investment in fixed assets will be the reason for slowing economic growth next year.

Deng added that the biggest financial risk in the Mainland is the persistent high debt-to-GDP ratio. However, the current economic growth is still dependent on investment. I believe the deleveraging process will take a long time. The renminbi exchange rate will have a little devaluation space. It is expected that the renminbi will reach 6.8 level against the dollar in 2018, about 2% below the current level and mean that monetary policy will still support the economy as a whole. However, it is not possible to expect whether the renminbi will downgrade next year .