Tao Dong: China and Hong Kong property market is still no investment value of 19 after the material to speed up the water to take leverage such as “warm boiled frog”
Looking back over the past five years, the economy has grown by an average annual rate of about 2.4%. However, the purchasing power of Hong Kong people has failed to catch up with the increase in property prices during the period of property prices. The rally is mainly driven by Mainland funds. The impact of the North Water market on the property market is becoming increasingly important. According to Tao Dong, Managing Director of Credit Suisse Asia Pacific Private Bank and Vice Chairman of Greater China, Tao Dong believes that with the National Financial Work Conference held last month, the “deleveraging” Important policy objectives, the next quarter of the “Nineteenth” after the closure of the central government in the next five years will speed up the water, resulting in falling property prices in Hong Kong, Hong Kong property prices follow the adjustment, “I think the current regardless of Hong Kong and Asian property market are not Investment value “. Ming Pao reporter Ye Chuangcheng
On the day before yesterday’s hurricane pigeon closest to Hong Kong yesterday, Tao was visited at the headquarters of Credit Suisse, located at the top of the Global Trade Plaza (ICC) at Kowloon Station. The haze was already covered by the harbor. Tao Dong in 2010 measured the mainland funds will Chung Hong Kong, pushed up the property prices, the reporter talked about the matter, ask him to the property market where he first shared this year to watch Sam Hui and Alan Tam two classic Hong Kong singer’s concert As we saw on the last night, the song was the works of the 1970s and 1980s, when I was still in the mainland, so 90% of the songs were heard for the first time last night, but I enjoyed it because This is not just an activity of Hong Kong fans, from the fans raised neon slogan, from Beijing, Shanghai, Dongguan is also a lot! I was thinking, Hong Kong in the last century 70 and 80 Chrysanthemum, Chow Yun Fat, are world-class superstars, they are indeed in their own industry to create a precedent, they lead the cultural and entertainment cause of the global impact of the world, the United States, the United States, the United States, Chinese society, its cause to the community has brought change, created a new world, is really a generation of master.
Mr Taung pointed out that the superstars mentioned above were only a microcosm of the 1970s and 1980s, and the economy was in fact flourishing during the period. “At that time, property prices were worth rising and should rise because the overall economy Is going up. ” But he believes that the level of Hong Kong singer today, compared with the king of that era, there is a big gap.
Hong Kong economy “a good cover of a hundred ugly” only good financial industry
Looking back on Hong Kong’s economic performance over the past 20 years, Tao has described it as “a good cover”. In the early days of the reunification, the Mainland’s manufacturing industry took off and Hong Kong had some advantages in providing intermediary services. With the Mainland as infrastructure and consumption as the locomotive of economic growth, Hong Kong has also played a role in financing. For many years, In recent years, with the growth of wealth in Asia, Hong Kong has developed into an area of wealth management center, and London and New York tied for one of the world’s three major financial centers, this also supports the property market for the better. “The prosperity of the financial sector in Hong Kong undoubtedly makes sense for the income of some people, the employment opportunities for individuals and the rental of office space in individual districts. I think it is justified. After all, the financial industry has created so much wealth. (IPO shares) can earn so much money, if the wealthy area for the management of wealth is such a good business, why the relevant practitioners can not have higher wages and bonuses? In this case, they can afford the house, can afford the rent Is a normal thing.
However, Tao Dong believes that in recent years, in addition to the financial industry thriving, the former has supported the economic manufacturing, logistics and tourism have declined, so even if the economic growth is still up to 3%, nor healthy development, “a good cover 100 The problem is that when an industry is good, but other industries are not good, other industries will be miserable. In addition to property prices and rents rise, government officials see GDP growth of up to 3% per year, will feel the economy Very well, there is no way to provide help for the people and the sandwich class whose quality of life is declining. ”
Over the past 14 years, the Hong Kong property market has increased
According to Tao Dong analysis, 2003 was a watershed in the property market in Hong Kong. After the merger of property prices with the US monetary policy, the relationship with the Mainland property prices was getting higher and higher. And he predicted in 2010, North Water will push up the Hong Kong Tower, because he was in the daily get off work to pay attention to the nearby Arc de Triomphe “only kitten puppy a few lights open”, meaning that the Kowloon Station luxury Part of the mainland has been bought by the rich, as investment and non-resident use, he estimated that this is the beginning of the mainland capital Hong Kong to buy the floor, and the past year, rush to the various funds, but also to accelerate the rise in property prices, new highs. “In the past 12 months, a lot of money has flowed into Hong Kong, so that the liquidity of the banking system is very large. Even if there is a 3-day rate hike in the United States, there is no need to follow in Hong Kong. Under normal circumstances, capital inflows will make the currency appreciate, This is the case in recent months. However, under the linked exchange rate mechanism, the exchange rate of the Hong Kong dollar will not be linked to the US dollar. As a result, property prices are soaring and the performance of the stock market is very good.
The government has God’s hand without the brain of God
Looking ahead, Tao Dong analysis, held last month, the National Financial Work Conference to “deleveraging” as a major policy objectives, which repeatedly referred to “risk” and “supervision” and other two words, which means the next five years Tightening monetary policy is the main theme, and this also with the US Federal Reserve announced the same period in the policy, means that the two major central banks will be synchronized water (compiled by: Tao Dong in his new book “QE low tide – In the risk and opportunity “will be explained in detail).
Therefore, Tao believes that after the closing of the “Nineteenth” in the next season, the central government will introduce a series of policies to “leverage” the economy. In many economic sectors, real estate is the most sensitive, so he predicted that in the future 5 years at a certain point in time, the mainland property prices will turn down, the property prices in Hong Kong also follow the adjustment, “I think the current property market in Hong Kong like hot boiled frogs, when the water temperature rises slowly, the frog was very comfortable in which , But ultimately do not feel lost their lives.Currently we feel that the market liquidity is sufficient, that do not have to worry about the property market, but in 2007 the US Treasury officials also told me that “after the Second World War the United States never appeared more than one The national property market fell, “the results of a year later by the detonation of the global financial tsunami, we can see that the government has God’s hand, not necessarily the brain of God; and even if the Chinese government’s administrative capacity is strong, but the policy appears The risk of a mistake can not be ruled out.