HSBC turned to sing good property prices rose by 10% Shi Yongqing changed: the most optimistic year-on-year increase of 15%
The property market in Hong Kong has recently recovered, and the market has turned around to see the performance of the property market this year. HSBC Global Research also released a report yesterday that the property market adjustment cycle has been completed, the recovery rate is faster than expected, and detailed five factors, it is estimated that this year, property prices will rise by 10%, surpassing last year’s high; the bank predicted this year at the beginning of the year Prices will fall by 5% to 10%. The founder of the Central Plains Group, Shi Yongqing, said in an enquiry to the newspaper that he had begun to turn to the property market earlier. “In the first half of the year, the opportunity has risen to 10%, breaking the old high.” The most optimistic this year, property prices are expected to rise 15%. .
Raise the target price of real estate stocks
HSBC also adjusted the forecast for the property market this year. The transaction volume of the first-hand property was increased by 4% from the original estimate to 31%. The second-hand property transaction was down from 10% to 15%, and the first-hand and second-hand transactions were respectively 2.02 million and 44,000.
The report describes the local property market as “sunshine after the rain” and lists five reasons for pushing up property prices, including the end of the interest rate hike cycle, the reduction of medium-term land supply, the strengthening of financial markets and the positive provision of mortgage loans by banks, as well as the first-hand building to be launched this year. Vacant taxes will speed up asset turnover. The bank pointed out earlier that it is optimistic that the commercial building business is a refuge under the quiet of the property market. Now it is optimistic about the residential property market. It is expected that the passengers will return to the property market in the second quarter. The market sentiment will be more positive in the coming months, further accelerating the property market. recovery. The bank also mentioned that the Hong Kong Government had previously reduced the proportion of private housing from 40% to 30%. The supply of private housing in the medium term will fall, supporting future property prices to continue upward. As regards the vacant tax on the first floor of the Government, the bank thinks that the measures are unlikely to affect property prices but will encourage developers to speed up the sale of new flats and cargo tails.
Although local property stocks have rebounded, HSBC believes that there is still room for growth in individual stocks, raising the target price of real estate stocks by an average of 7.2%. We are optimistic about developers with more land reserves and a large number of units available for sale. We recommend Wheelock (00020), Xindi (00016) and Xinzhi (00083) with target prices of 79.3 yuan, 163.2 yuan and 17.4 yuan respectively.
At the beginning of the year, Shi Yongqing, who had lost the property market at the beginning of the year, fell as much as 8%. The company said that it was optimistic earlier, mainly because the Sino-US trade war was moderated. Secondly, China’s economic performance was better than expected, and the US suspended interest rate hike and suspended. The contract reduction plan has a positive effect on the property market in Hong Kong. He estimates that under the most optimistic circumstances, property prices are expected to rise by 12% to 15% this year. “The net economy will have a chance to rise to 10% in the first half of the year, breaking the old high.”
Luo Jiacong is bearish
In addition to Shi Yongqing becoming a “friend” again, New World Development (00017) business and marketing director Huang Haoxian predicted that property prices will increase by 8% to 10% this year. If the market conditions are upward, the property price forecast will be adjusted again. Have confidence in the market outlook and project sales. When he accepted the interview with Fu Media in March this year, he only predicted that the annual property price would increase by up to 5%.
However, Luo Jiacong, chief economic and strategist of Bank of Communications Hong Kong, did not intend to change his opinion. He said that the recent rebound in the local property market was mainly due to the transfer of funds from the surrounding areas into the market, which caused the property prices to “catch up” and believed that the property prices would soon peak. .