The uptrend accelerated, the low-end cumulative bomb exceeded 6%, HSBC has a good property price, and it is expected to break this year.
The Hong Kong Building “Do Not Fall Myth” has come back again. The second-hand property price index has rebounded more than 6% from the low level in February this year. Last year, the market fell for less than half a year. This year, property prices have regained momentum, and many heavyweight institutions and experts have sang well. According to a report released by HSBC Global Research, the property market’s down cycle has been completed. It also refers to the pace of recovery in the property market and the rebound in price. Both exceeded expectations. The property market is expected to rise 10% for the whole year and break the historical high of last year. Reporter: Chen Jiabi
The Chairman of the Central Plains Group, Shi Yongqing, also joined the “breaking-out theory” and revised his claim that “this year’s property market is lower than the end of the year”. I believe that this year is still a rising market. The property market accelerated, the Central Plains City Leading Index (CCL) hit a record high of 188.64 points at the end of August last year, all the way down until the beginning of February this year, the Central Plains CCL reported 169.95 points, the higher position was nearly 10%. However, during the past two months, the property market has been “turning its face” at a very high speed. It has risen for ten weeks and has so far rebounded by more than 6% in the lower level. The latest report is 180.37 points.
Shi Yongqing changed his mouth
Expected to rise more than 10% throughout the year
HSBC yesterday overturned the forecast of a 5% to 10% decline in the property market earlier this year, and it has soared 10% for the whole year. The five major factors include the completion of the interest rate hike cycle, the mid-term land supply reduction, the bank’s active provision of mortgages, the expectation of positive financial effects in the financial market in the second half of the year, and the vacant tax to accelerate asset turnover, which has led to the reluctance of buyers who have taken a wait-and-see attitude. market. If the CCL is used as an indicator and the property price in Hong Kong will rise by 10% this year, the index will rise to 192 points, breaking through the historical high of 188.64 points in 2018.
Shi Yongqing also admitted that he had seen a lighter situation in the second half of last year, but the situation was not as expected, so he had to correct his judgment on the market. He proposed that there are three main reasons for supporting the market, including: the Sino-US trade relationship has not deteriorated, the impact of China’s trade war has been limited, and the United States has suspended interest rate hikes.
Shi Yongqing concluded that in the past two months, the property market has risen by more than 10% in terms of property market and property price increases. “At the current rate of increase, it may rise by 10% in the first half of the year,” but there is still Sino-US trade in the second half of the year. The variable of the relationship, so the annual increase of 10% of the property price is a reasonable forecast, “If you are aggressive, it may rise to 12 to 15%”, when the Central Plains CCL will rise to 192 points to 197 points.
Scholar: The interest rate peaks
Entering the market
The views of scholars are more positive. Guan Yuzhao, director of the Guanzhong Business and Economic Research Center, predicted that “at least this year (the property market) will hit a record high,” the Central Plains CCL index can reach 195 points.
He explained that the Government has reduced the supply of public and private housing from six to four to seven or three ratios, which has reduced the supply of private buildings. “It is expected that the imbalance between supply and demand will be more serious, and the price of property will not fall, and the influx of people will be bought and bought.” The United States has stopped raising interest rates. It is expected that the interest rate will peak and the amount of mortgage payments will not increase. Therefore, the current volume of second-hand property market has increased significantly, reflecting the strong desire of the public to enter the market.
The views of the developers are also similar. New World (017) business and marketing director Huang Haoxian said yesterday that CCL reported 171.92 points at the beginning of this year, and the price of the property has risen by 5%. It is expected that the rigid demand is still in progress and will rise again in the second half of the future. 3%, the property price rose by about 8% to 10% for the whole year.