Tang Wenliang: the second half of the year prices fell 5 to 10%

Property prices rise has not stopped, the industry seems unanimously optimistic, Jerry Wang, Chief Executive of Jihui Group sing the opposite, that the rate hike must not be underestimated, the relative pressure on the fine price in the second half of the property prices fell 5% to 10%; A building is worth the Air is good.

The property market rose significantly last year, entering 2018, the property market rally has not stopped, multiple indicators of the property per square foot repeatedly broken roof, and the real estate industry most of the property market is also very optimistic about the property this year, it is generally expected that the price increase of 1% It seems that there is no light friend. Tang Wen-liang is powerhouse, that people from all walks of life and even the public is too optimistic about the prospects for the property market, ignoring some of the underlying factors may change, the key is the interest rate trend.

“If the 3-year plus 3-cent property price drops by at least 20%

Many commentators have also analyzed that the market has “digested" the rate hike and will not impact on property prices. Tang Wenliang absolutely did not agree with this: “It is just the concept digestion, not the actual digestion. They never experience In the high-interest-bearing era, we have already faced the question of how the property market will not affect the property market? Remember that if we add 3 interest rates this year, this will not be the final result. We may have to add another 4 next year, and then another 3 years if we add 3%, property prices will drop by 2-3% at least. "

He thinks the rate hike is a good factor for the property market. Some analysts think that rate hike is equal to the economy, so the property market is also good. He said: “Now that Hong Kong’s economy is good and its consumption power is strong, it is because interest rates are low and mortgage supply is cheaper. Two centuries of interest rate and how much can they spend? Since the United States maintained a low interest rate 10 years ago, it only helps them to weather the economic downturn in case more bankers are found. "

As for the abundance of funds in the market and the booming property market, he also believes that the situation will not last long: “As the United States shrinks its capitals and its capital may be drawn away, the capital in the Mainland will be channeled back to the same position. Funds of the same size can be problematic no matter lately. Recently, There are also many large domestic enterprises selling cash. "

He emphasized that he did not dare to ignore the property market. He just hoped not to look favorably on the one hand and ignore the basic factors and on the other hand, the supply started to increase. He also believed that the major market should be the light and thin market, especially the nano-floor. Regarding the property market trend, he said: “In the first half of the year, property prices plunged by 5% to 10% in the first half of the year. In the future, the prices of fine-priced flats and public housing will increase. I believe buyers of nano-flats are big losers."

Supply increased nanotechnology into a big loser

In the face of persistent property price increases, how can the government curb it? In his view, the only solution is to increase the supply, while other measures include relaxing the mortgage. There is also a certain risk. “Relaxing the mortgage will ensure that second-hand owners are not going to be anti-competitive? I am sure they are on the opposite end of the price. It is not until the start of supply that more relaxation of the first-time mortgage pick-up can be relaxed." As for whether the property market should be spicy or spicy, Temporarily, it is not the time to reduce spicy food: “As I said earlier that the property market was in short supply. However, at that time, the government thought it was a speculation that property prices were going up. Now it has fully reflected that insufficient supply is the crux of the problem. I think until the supply increases, Special Stamp Duty (SSD) can be withdrawn. “He pointed out that it is a good thing for the government to actively increase its supply. People who intend to enter the market should also pay attention to this. When the government actively copes with the property market, it means that property prices will drop more High, “favorable property market and unfavorable property prices, if more and more people can afford to buy a house, that is, property prices down."

Due to the high property prices and the difficulty of children entering the market, Tang Wenliang did not agree with this phenomenon. “It is the debt of the father, the father’s responsibility, and the development of a culture. Young people will ask her father, Why my friend Dad helped get on the bus instead of himself? Actually, many of my dad’s are almost giving away their property, obviously enjoying retirement, enjoying the risk of buying a house again, and not a health phenomenon. “In the final analysis, he thought the market participants asked themselves 3 A question, “Whether there is one need or not, two have no first installment, and three can not afford it."

Non-residential property, he optimistic about the building. Since mid-2000s, the price per square foot has risen. The price of Far East Financial Center at Admiralty Far East has reached a new high of $ 50,000. Tang Wenliang, who holds a floor in the building, Do not intend to cut love. He analyzed that building A is good. Because Hong Kong is a financial center, the financial center of London is shaken after the Brexit from the EU, and Shanghai has less access to capital than Hong Kong. As a result, many international financial institutions still come to Hong Kong to set up offices. At least 10% increase.