24/4/2018-10

Ping Ping: The three “Time Bombs" clip attack the property market!

On Monday’s Ping Ping, we mentioned that the HKMA’s acceptance of the Hong Kong dollar offer was just a beginning and it will come one after another. Sure enough, the HKMA has continued to enter the market several times since Monday and has already received more than HK$33 billion in market orders. This has reduced the bank balance from about RMB180 billion before entering the market to about RMB 146 billion on Thursday. As the HKMA has entered the market many times, the exchange rate of the exchange rate of 7.85 is still weak. This means that the trend of funds flowing away due to hulling or other reasons is still unfinished; the chances of the HKMA re-entering the market in the coming days and even weeks are still Very large, the chances of Hong Kong’s bank balance falling below 100 billion yuan are considerable.

“Evil" or early next month

Last weekend, investment banks estimated that bank balances would drop by 100 billion yuan this month, and began to have a clear impact on bank interest rates. If this is true, the rate hike in Hong Kong banks will not be a thing after the fall, but will happen sooner, and it is not surprising even that next month or June will raise interest rates.

Of course, it cannot be concluded at present that Hong Kong has experienced a wave of capital expenditure. The bank balance of about 100 billion yuan is still adequate, at least less than 3 billion yuan when compared with the Asian financial crisis in 1997. The fear is that the macroeconomic environment that Hong Kong is facing is deteriorating, making it possible for Hong Kong companies and investors to be caught off guard by making the funds originally parked in Hong Kong withdraw from the Hong Kong market faster, returning to the United States or entering other markets to hedge their risks.

The deterioration of the macroeconomic situation mainly has two aspects: First, whether the West’s economic sanctions against Russia will escalate, and whether the United States and Russia will come together for the sake of the Syrian issue and will be diametrically opposed. Second, the Sino-U.S. economic and trade relations have always been uncertain, warm and cold. The Trump administration imposed taxes on goods exported to China under the 301 Act, and also punished ZTE for the violation of U.S. sanctions orders against North Korea and Iran. Important technology companies, prohibiting U.S. companies from exporting parts and components to ZTE over the next seven years will create more obstacles to Sino-U.S. trade. This will make the Asia-Pacific region more uncertain about the economic and trade prospects including Hong Kong and increase the possibility of capital escaping.

Although President Trump has always been pro-Russian in his stance, his government spoke of doing one set. Not long ago, on the grounds of Russia’s interference in the election, Russian sanctions against Russian officials and companies were further strengthened. Among them, Rusal listed in Hong Kong became the target. Any company, individual, and russia’s trade would be subject to sanctions in violation of US regulations, forcing the majority International banks have refused to have commercial relations with RUSAL, and even buying and selling its shares is almost impossible.

Now coupled with the Syrian chemical crisis, European and American countries are brewing new sanctions against Syria and Russia that supports her. If things do, more Russian companies and businesses will become untouchable; their original business and transactions will be greatly affected, raising funds to become difficult, and even selling large amounts of assets will be required to maintain sufficient cash flow. This impact on asset prices, including the stock market and property market, is difficult to estimate.

The Sino-U.S. Trade Front Strikes Again

On the other hand, Sino-US trade disputes did not show signs of quelling. Although Trump repeatedly demonstrated his readyness to negotiate at Twitter, he actually did not let the Chinese government have any downswings. Instead, he re-contacted the old allies to jointly target Chinese companies. An example of the United Kingdom’s joint restriction on technology companies in the Mainland is the United States Government’s active Another example is the study of another list, which imposes a 25% punitive tariff on 100 billion US dollars worth of Chinese goods. To put these together, Trump’s trade is ambiguous. It is even more questionable whether the two sides can negotiate and reach a successful agreement to resolve the crisis.

In response to the crisis, the Chinese government has repeatedly emphasized the importance of free trade in international economic conferences and diplomatic activities, and criticized the United States for unilateralism and protectionism. It has also begun to prepare for the possible impact of the trade war. The People’s Bank of China suddenly announced a one-percentage-point reduction on Tuesday, increasing liquidity in the medium-term market by nearly RMB 1 trillion. We must know that the economic growth in the first quarter of the Mainland reached 6.8%, which is better than expected. In such circumstances, it is also necessary to release water. One of the reasons is obviously to prepare for possible trade warfare, and to fight against the enterprise and the economy first. Strengthen resistance.