24/9/2018-4

The interest rate has risen to a high of ten years.

The interest rate hike in Hong Kong is becoming more and more obvious. The one-month interest rate of the Hong Kong dollar hit a new high in the past decade. The banking sector believes that Hong Kong has the conditions to raise interest rates. It may announce the fastest increase of the best interest rate (P) of 0.25% today. The deposit interest rate will be “asymmetric interest rate increase”, or up to 0.1%.

Hong Kong banks raised the prime rate today as soon as possible.

After the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, the short-term interest rate of the Hong Kong dollar fell. The treasury market information showed that the overnight and one-day interest rates on Wednesday fell to 2.21 and 2.95% respectively, but the one-month interest rate related to the building continued to rise, rising by 4 points per day. 2.21%, recorded a rise for six consecutive days, and a high of eight years.

Hong Kong’s interest rate in recent years

Asymmetric up-regulation of current stocks

Lin Junxi, head of the research department of Shanghai Commercial Bank, said that the one-month interest rate of the Hong Kong dollar has been more than 2% higher for three consecutive days, and the gap between the best interest rate (calculated as 5.25% of the large P) has narrowed to about 3%. The conditions for raising interest rates are mixed. It is believed that the probability of adding a P to Hong Kong banks today is more than half.

He expects the bank to raise the interest rate of the Hong Kong dollar demand deposit at the same time. However, the interest rate increase of the loan will not be symmetrical, and the current interest rate will only increase to 0.1%. According to the latest data from the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, as of the end of July, the size of Hong Kong bank demand deposits reached 4.15 trillion yuan, which means that once Hong Kong banks raise the current interest rate, the impact will be enormous.

In fact, Overseas Chinese Wing Hang has taken the lead in raising the demand deposit on September 5 from 0.01% to 0.25%.

Citi estimates that it will be again in March next year.

Citi also issued a report that there are many indications that Hong Kong will follow the US interest rate hike by 0.25% this week, the bank will raise the savings rate by 0.05 to 0.1%, and the next rate hike will be next March. According to the bank’s calculation, the daily interest rate of large banks will be reduced by 0.25%, and the net interest margin of large banks will be narrowed by 1 to 2 pips, which has a greater impact on HSBC and Hang Seng Bank (00011).

The interest rate hike is expected to stimulate Hong Kong’s surge in Hong Kong last week. However, yesterday’s profit-taking, Hong Kong exchanges fell nearly 100 points, and the Asian session closed at 7.8117. Xie Jiaxuan, an economist at DBS Bank (Hong Kong), believes that after the Fed announces a rate hike, the Hong Kong dollar interest rate will further increase. The future of the Hong Kong dollar will continue to be at the level of 7.8 to 7.81. However, the factors of the quarterly and large-scale new shares will continue to be completed. The liquidity of funds will increase greatly.