2018 GDP in the fourth quarter may slow down again
China will announce economic growth in the fourth quarter of 2018 today. The Financial Times report lists five things to watch out for, including official GDP growth, real estate market conditions, infrastructure investment, private investment, inflation and nominal GDP.
The report said that China’s GDP after inflation correction in the third quarter of last year was 6.5%, which is the slowest quarterly growth rate since the end of the global financial crisis in early 2009. A Reuters survey showed that the fourth quarter may be further slowed to 6.4%, and UBS’s forecast is even lower, at 6.2%.
In terms of real estate, from 2016 to early 2018, the rebound in the real estate market helped maintain the strong growth of the Chinese economy, but so far China’s real estate sales have declined for three consecutive months in terms of floor space, down 5.1% in November, this is from 2015. The biggest decline since the year. According to the report, continued slowdown will force developers to slow down investment in new projects, which in turn will reduce construction activity, commodity demand, and increase overall economic growth pressure.
Like real estate, the construction boom of roads, railways, power and water projects is critical to China’s strong economic growth from 2016 to 2017, but since last year, China’s economic growth has been greatly affected by the policy of reducing local government debt. slow. In recent months, the central government has encouraged provincial governments to issue infrastructure bonds and approve a wave of new rail projects.