Property prices fell

Recently, the financial sector has predicted that if the unemployment rate rises sharply, property prices will fall by 40%. In August this year, the price index of the Rating and Valuation Department was 393.9 points. If it fell 40%, the index would see 236.34 points. By the beginning of 2013, the five-year rise was completely evaporated.

Recently, the bleak voice of the property market is quite strong. Most people think that the price of property prices will continue to slowly adjust downwards in the short-term to next year. The indicators of various measurement prices are down or slow down, including property prices, rents for supporting property prices, bank valuation, The volume of transactions has shrunk, new rushing to grab customers, etc. It seems that the downward pressure on property prices is quite large. However, it is not easy for property prices to fall by 40%. In the most recent period, it should be counted after the 1997-2003 financial turmoil, and the internal and external difficulties will continue.

Property prices may fall by 40% and evaporate for 5 years?

Therefore, in the past ten years, there have been two significant declines in property prices, which lasted for about half a year. From September 2015 to March 2016, property prices fell by about 11.3%. The other was June 2018. Falling to December, property prices fell by 17.2%. However, the two market declines are slightly different. Schedule 1 is the performance of the market in 2015. If it is classified by residential unit type, the largest decline is in category A, and the finest unit below 421 square feet falls the most. In addition to residential properties, the office environment, which is more sensitive to the economic environment, fell from 462.9 points in October 2015 to 415.5 points in July 2016, a decrease of 10.2%. The adjustment time was longer than that of residential buildings. However, the decline was within the scope of various types of housing. .

It is worth noting that the fall in 2015 was not a huge shock in the global financial market, which hit the economies of the world. At that time, apart from Hong Kong stocks, the mainland stock market continued to fall, and there was also a large number of effects of the property market.

In the history of far-reaching, 2008 is the global financial tsunami. The performance of the market is different from that of 2015. The attached table shows that the biggest decline is E, with more than 1,722 square feet. The A-class has the least decline. Due to the large financial shock, the investment climate naturally has an impact, and buyers and investors in the luxury residential category may feel the fastest and deepest. In the same period, the performance of office buildings, regardless of the decline and down time, was larger and longer than that of residential buildings. It should be the investment component of office buildings. The performance of office buildings fell from 211.5 points in May 2008 to 151.2 points in March 2009, a decrease of 28.5%.

As can be seen from these data, as the recent adjustment is not a major financial shock, it is initially estimated that it is closer to the situation in 2015, that is, the price is led by small units, which is larger than that of medium and large units; the past two declines lasted for half a year. Left and right, we can assess the initial adjustment period from about half a year to next March.

During this period of time, it is estimated that the US interest rate increase in December this year and the first half of next year, multiple subsidized houses including new homes, first homes and green homes have been launched, and the purchasing power that failed to draw is to release the market or wait for the next time. A group of subsidized housing, trade wars after the US mid-term elections in November this year to the first quarter of next year, the impact on Hong Kong manufacturers and real economy employment will emerge, and even the developer’s new building deployment, inventory rise, etc. will be clear, will eventually Reflected in the trend of second-hand property prices.