GDP increased by 6.8% in the first quarter

In the first quarter of the Mainland, the economy grew steadily, with a year-on-year increase of 6.8%, which was the same as that of the previous month. However, under the shadow of the Sino-U.S. trade war, investment, industry, export, and financial data all fell in March, indicating that the economy is facing downward pressure and the economy is expected to increase in the second quarter. Speed ​​or start to slow down.

Xing Zhihong, spokesperson of the National Bureau of Statistics, said yesterday that the biggest difficulty facing China’s economy is the uncertainty of the international environment and may have some impact on China’s economy. However, China’s economic strength is strong, its potential is sufficient, its toughness is good, and its maneuverability is large.

According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics yesterday, in the first quarter of this year, the domestic gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 6.8% year-on-year, in line with market expectations. The growth rate was the same as last year’s fourth quarter, higher than the year set by the government this year. A target of 6.5% growth.

Although the economy remained stable in the first quarter, GDP growth in the first quarter fell to the lowest level in two years. It is noteworthy that, except for the good consumption in March, other data fell sharply across the board. There is downward pressure, and as the trade friction between China and the United States intensifies, China’s economic growth may begin to decline in the second quarter.

March exports to the US fell by 5.6% year-on-year

From January to March this year, with the growth of real estate investment accelerating, the growth rate of fixed asset investment still dropped to 7.5% year-on-year, and the growth rate fell by 0.5 percentage points from January to February; the growth rate of industrial added value in March. It fell back to a six-year low of 6% year-on-year, and the growth rate dropped by 1.2% from 7.2% in January to February. In March, foreign trade fell by 2.7% year-on-year in US dollars and recorded a deficit of US$4.98 billion. It is worth noting that the trade war between China and the United States was rampant, and its exports to the United States in March fell by 5.6% year-on-year.

At the same time, according to the data released by the People’s Bank of China, the broad money growth slowed back to a year-on-year increase of 8.2% in March, down from the previous month by 0.6%, while the growth of social financing in the month slowed to a 10.5% year-on-year increase. New low.

Worrying about external shocks

Zhou Hao, an economist at the German Commercial Bank, believes that the data in the first quarter was relatively normal, but in March, the consumer price index (CPI) went down and the export was negative. The growth rate of the industrial added value was only 0.33% on a monthly basis. Considering the Sino-US trade dispute, Leveraging, the property market slowed down. It is expected that the Chinese economy will not be particularly optimistic in the near future.

According to Jiang Chao, chief economist of Haitong Securities, infrastructure investment continued to slow in the first quarter, and the global recovery momentum weakened. In the second quarter, China’s economic growth rate slowed down significantly.

Tang Jianwei, an analyst at Bank of Communications, believes that the economic development in the first quarter is relatively stable, but we must pay attention to external shocks. If the trade friction between China and the United States further increases, we cannot rule out the apparent fall in external demand, which will have a negative impact on annual growth.