US stocks are adjusting in the second half of the year
Sino-US trade war negotiations continue, the United States threatens to increase tariffs and other measures, but the market believes that these voices are only for negotiation skills, the two sides seem to negotiate and progress smoothly, the US Treasury Secretary said that Sino-US trade negotiations have made a lot of progress, but with China Trade negotiations still have implementation work, and the global economic slowdown is expected to have only a modest impact on the US economy, with no signs of a recession next year. The market expects that the Sino-US trade agreement may be announced in May, and the United States immediately set off a trade war to Europe, regardless of the alliance of many years, but it is still unknown whether it is a play.
US means include urging Europe to ban Huawei’s 5G technology services and targeting the European Union’s airbus subsidies, and the European automotive industry is more likely to become a major target for the United States.
Fed turn to eagle opportunity micro
Europe’s high-profile response will retaliate against US goods tariffs. Earlier, the EU also punished large US technology companies for taxation, data privacy and other issues. Most EU member states agreed to trade negotiations with the United States last week, but France and Belgium voted against a vote.
Fed pigeons turn to eagle? A potential risk in the second quarter market is the change in the Fed’s attitude, but the possibility of a pigeon turning to an eagle is relatively small. After the minutes of the Fed’s March meeting, the market’s expectation of this year’s interest rate cuts has dropped slightly. Less than half of the market is expected to have interest rate cuts during the year, but the interest rate market is expected this year after the US debt has just reversed interest rates. The probability of at least one interest rate cut is as high as 70%, indicating that the market has gradually accepted the Fed’s outlook on monetary policy this year, and concerns about the economic recession have cooled.
The newly announced US stocks were mixed. The first announced JP Morgan Chase’s first-quarter earnings exceeded expectations. Later, both Goldman Sachs and Citibank fell short of expectations. Investors are still not optimistic about the profitability of the banking industry at the end of the economic cycle.
The overall market has very bad expectations for US corporate earnings. If the profits of technology companies in the next few weeks are not significantly worse, the stock price will have the opportunity to be supported, and the market still has the opportunity to go up again.
In the first quarter of this year, the stock market has risen quite a lot. In the short-term stock market trend, US stocks are getting closer to the high level, and even have the opportunity to break through the high level again. The news of the Sino-US trade negotiations may also be announced in May. The market is likely to pick up good news. SellinMay, if the second quarter is safe, the chances of adjustment in the market in the second half of the year will be greater.
Brexit is also one of the potential risks in the second quarter, but Europe is now in the process of negotiating trade with the United States, or re-electing the Brexit deadline.
The good news is that China’s economy is showing signs of stabilization. In the first quarter, GDP, total retail sales of consumer goods and industrial added value above designated size were better than expected, and even fixed investment in real estate seems to have weathered the winter. Therefore, if there is an adjustment in the market, investors should adjust the opportunity to increase investment and pay attention to the following sectors: including the infrastructure sector with favorable policies, the consumer sector benefiting tax reduction, 5G and Kechuang board.