Capital city catches backward stocks before 30,000 turns
The PBOC has released water, and Sino-US trade negotiations have entered a big straight path to promote the Chinese and Hong Kong stock markets. However, the positive factors have already reflected “77.8”. It is expected that the Hang Seng Index will be consolidated before the 30,000 mark. Although Hong Kong stocks lacked direction in the short term, due to the abundance of market funds, the sector continued to take turns. The domestic banks, infrastructure, building materials and individual domestic demand stocks with weaker rebound strength during the year are expected to catch up, and they may take a short turn. Reporter Yuan Guoshou
The PBOC restarted the reverse repurchase operation at the beginning of last week. The market China’s monetary policy tends to be loose, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets rose. The Shanghai Composite Index stabilized 3200 points upstairs, stimulating Hong Kong stocks to regain the 30,000 mark. At the same time, the National Bureau of Statistics announced that the economy grew by 6.4% in the first quarter of this year, the same as the fourth quarter of last year, slightly higher than the market expectation of 6.3%.
China PMI returns to 50 levels
Chen Yuxi, investment strategist of Fidelity International’s distribution business in Northeast Asia, said that looking back on past economic data, China’s GDP has maintained a steady growth level, but it has not been prominent, but some industries are gradually improving, which is expected to drive economic development. Leading indicators such as manufacturing purchasing managers The index (PMI) returns to the 50 level and there are signs of improvement. He pointed out that the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size and the total retail sales of consumer goods recorded better-than-expected growth, reflecting the gradual improvement of the stimulus policies of the central government; the fiscal policy has the opportunity to further support the economy, and the results remain to be seen.
On the other hand, foreign reports said that Chinese and US officials will once again face face-to-face economic and trade negotiations, and expect the leaders of China and the United States to formally sign a trade agreement at the end of May. In other words, the chances of both China and the United States appear to be more and more high, and the market outlook remains optimistic.
However, on the eve of the Easter holiday, the pressure on Hong Kong stocks to increase and the pressure on the 30,000 mark is believed to be due to the fact that most of the recent good news has already reflected that Hong Kong stocks will be consolidated in the short term. Even if the HSI has a chance to rise to the next level, and even create a peak, challenge the historical high of 33,484 points, and now do not have to rush to enter the market, it is advisable to wait for the callback to buy goods.
The Hang Seng Index fell back to the 30,000-yuan downstairs on Friday, closing at 29,963 points, down 161 points, and the transaction volume was reduced to less than 100 billion yuan; the weekly total rose only 53 points, and it was still in place. Looking ahead to the market, Chen Jinxing, director of the research department of Emperor Securities, expects Hong Kong stocks to compete in the 30,000-year relationship. In the short term, it may not be too fast to break through the historical high. Whether it can challenge this high level from now to next year depends on the economic growth rate and corporate profitability.
In the face of the market, there is no obvious direction. The funds have taken turns to speculate in the near future. The strong sectors such as the 5G concept, mobile phone equipment, science and pharmaceutical stocks, which have rebounded a lot during the year, have shown signs of softening, and the funds have turned to the backward sectors, such as the internal banking. Infrastructure, building materials, international finance and even individual domestic demand. China Railway Construction (1186) and HSBC (005) had reversed the market at the beginning of last week, followed by the transfer of domestic banks. ICBC (1398), CCB (939) and Bank of China (3988) surged and rose to 1 The monthly high is expected to further pursue.
Keeping the 30,000 mark
Chen Jinxing said that after the Hong Kong stocks rose to 30,000 points, there was no particular obvious direction. In this case, there were more plate rotations. In the last week, the silver stocks were bought, which is believed to be behind. He pointed out that although the profit growth of mainland banks last year was only a few hundred cents, not too strong, but it is expected to maintain a stable dividend in the future, so it will attract capital inflows, but this trend can not continue, depending on whether the market can rise further, once Failure to continue to rise, the mainland bank stocks are expected to gradually decline.
Deng Shengxing, co-founder and CEO of Ruisheng Securities, believes that banks with relatively backward trends can pay attention because the valuation is low, the price-to-earnings ratio and the price-to-book ratio are only about 5 times and 1 times respectively, and the dividend yield is high; Mainland credit is more relaxed than before, and the capital adequacy ratio has been improved.
However, Deng Shengxing said that the state supports small and micro enterprise loans, which is beneficial to small and medium-sized banks. Compared with the four major banks, it can rise faster, so it can consolidate China Merchants Bank (3968) and the Postal Savings Bank (1658). , you can hold four major lines. On the contrary, HSBC (005), which is also lagging behind, is generally attractive because the United States no longer raises interest rates, international bank spreads widen and decline, while operating difficulties, and facing compliance issues.
Inside the silver wall
Infrastructure stocks and individual domestic demand stocks also lag behind during the year. Chen Jinxing believes that all of them can be considered. The valuation of infrastructure stocks is not high. It is expected that earnings will be better this year than last year. In terms of domestic demand stocks, Mengniu (2319) and Anta (2020) are also worthy of attention. Because the same industry leader, the brand effect is strong, it will help the stock price rise. He pointed out that the sporting goods industry is not subject to policy, but mainly depends on the company’s execution, while Anta is active and can be held in the medium and long term.
In the backward sector, Huang Weihao, director of the research department of China Minsheng Securities (Hong Kong), believes that infrastructure stocks can be chased because the fundamentals have not changed much, and the performance has not been bad. The direction of the mainland to increase infrastructure investment and stabilize the economy has not changed. With multiple sectors such as technology, insider and car taking turns, Boji’s shareholdings have been more stable.
Although the mainland banks are relatively backward, Huang Weihao has reservations about this sector. As the market speculates, it may not be a success. Last week, large banks such as CCB and ICBC were the biggest gainers. It is believed that the Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate has risen. Take advantage of the situation. Overall, the profit growth of the Bank of China was stable, but the fundamentals only improved slightly.
In terms of the domestic demand sector, Huang Weihao pointed out that the overall situation is not too backward. For example, Tsingtao Brewery (168) and Anta have been rising a lot in recent days, and the valuation is high, so it is not very attractive.
However, Deng Shengxing said that the reduction of value-added tax in the Mainland will help enterprises to raise prices and benefit the food stocks. Mengniu can be optimistic. As for the infrastructure sector, it still has the value of having a 5G concept. Due to the national key push, it is beneficial to telecommunications equipment stocks in the early stage of development. In terms of traditional infrastructure stocks, in fact, it was speculative at the end of last year. It has only recently fallen back. As the expected earnings growth will not be too large, it is only appropriate to take a short-term.