The 6.6-million-dollar fall in human toleration has not yet seen large-scale emptiness. The current level is expected to support

Affected by Sino-US trade frictions and global market fluctuations, onshore (CNY) and offshore (CNH) fell below the US dollar yesterday morning and fell below the 6.6 level. The minimum level was 6.61. There was a transfer of funds from mainland Chinese banks before noon. In the city, the renminbi rebounded slightly, and then fell again. The CNY closed down 390 points (0.59%) during the Asian session yesterday, falling for 5 consecutive days and hitting a new low since last December. Market participants expect that the renminbi’s weakness will continue. In the short term, it may test 6.65 to 6.67. Since there is no significant short-selling trade, it is estimated that the PBC will not allow the renminbi to fall too quickly. I believe there will be support at the 6.6 to 6.7 level.

HK exchange futures turnover reached a new high

The renminbi has fallen by more than 3% in less than half a month since the 14th of this month, driving market demand for RMB risk management. The HKEx (00388) has actively traded renminbi products, and the US dollar against the renminbi (Hong Kong) in June. The average daily turnover of futures was 7,503 contracts (nominal value of 750 million U.S. dollars), which was a 1.53 times increase from the previous year, and hit the highest monthly transaction ever. The single-day trading volume reached 17,711 contracts (nominal value of 1.77 billion U.S. dollars) yesterday, the third highest ever. The single-day trading volume of the US dollar against the RMB (Hong Kong) option also hit a record high of US$74 million on the 25th of this month since its launch last March.

The central parity of the renminbi fell by nearly 400 points yesterday to a new low of more than six months. Last night, the CNY closed at 6.6040 overnight. As of 1:30 this morning, CNH reported 6.6137, and HKD 84.28 per 100 HKH against the CNH.

Yan Jianwen, general manager and co-director of the financial business department of China Everbright Bank’s Hong Kong branch, pointed out that the stock market and the sharp fall in interest rates, coupled with the unclear prospects of the Sino-U.S. trade war, have kept the US dollar strong and the yuan has fallen further. The segment fell from the 6.58 level to 6.6, and had seen 6.61, about 11 o’clock when the trend was stable, and it rebounded to 6.5930. It was suspected that there was an intervention, but it was difficult to confirm.

Devaluation to help exports

Yan Jianwen also mentioned that the PBC will not use RMB depreciation as a trade warfare tool. After a significant devaluation of the Renminbi in 2015 and 2016, it caused a large amount of capital to flow away. The PBC will need two years to stabilize the problem of capital outflow, such as stabilizing exports by depreciation. , “If you trigger the emotions again, it will be very dangerous.” Although the overall trend of the renminbi is declining, it is expected to fall at the 6.6 level in the short term.

The Mainland Securities Daily quoted experts as saying that a reasonable depreciation of the renminbi would be reasonable and could leave room for China to deal with the trade situation, so it is not a bad thing. Li Ruofan, an economist of OCBC Wing Hang Bank, said that the RMB may fall to 6.65 in the next couple of days, but the 6.7 level will have strong support. She said that due to Sino-U.S. trade problems and stock market declines, the renminbi has fallen. There are no strong overseas sales in 2015 and 2016, and the mainland economy is not too bad. For the time being, one-way devaluation is not yet expected. The renminbi is still Two-way fluctuations dominate. Furthermore, if the renminbi falls too quickly, it is expected that the People’s Bank will also take action.

Lin Junyu, head of the research department of Treasury Business Department of Shanghai Commercial Bank, revealed that the trading volume of CNY yesterday was the highest since November 2016. In the early stage, there were many US dollar purchases from insurance companies and even hedge funds, and there was an intervening doubt at about 11 o’clock. Large Chinese banks have bought large amounts of renminbi. Although the depreciation pressure on the renminbi continues, it may test 6.67 in the short term, and then stabilize at 6.6. Since the central banks of the United Kingdom and Canada may raise interest rates in the fourth quarter, the dollar will not be too strong; if the trade situation between China and the US improves, the renminbi There will be no big drop, but the annual exchange rate will be lower than last year, or at the end of the year or at the level of 6.6 to 6.7.