Worrying recession funds rushing into the bond market Hong Kong stocks stabilized in the night trading industry: the national rescue market failed to repeat last year “black December"
The European and American economies stepped into recession and deepened their worries. The fund accelerated its cash-out to lock in profits, triggering the withdrawal of funds from global stock markets. Hong Kong stocks plunged 590 points, the most hurt in two and a half months. Hong Kong stocks have been under pressure in the short term, and 28,000 is in danger. However, countries adopt easing policies to support the economy. The investment community believes that it is unlikely that the “black December" will be repeated last year.
Tencent (00700) major shareholder Naspers intends to spin off the Internet business including Tencent’s equity in the Netherlands, disguised to reduce shares, and US stocks have not stopped falling. Hong Kong’s night rose by 100 points, ending at 28,619 points. As at 0:00 this morning, the overall blue chip ADR performance in Hong Kong is equivalent to a Hang Seng Index up 28 points.
Last year’s “Black December" US 3-year and 5-year period, as well as 2-year and 5-year debt curves, were also upside down. At that time, the short-term performance of the HSI was dragged down, falling 2.5% for the whole month. The Dow fell 8.7%.
The investment community believes that the three-month and ten-year inversions will immediately trigger stock market adjustments, but the market is still not turning to the critical point. It is expected that the chances of re-enacting “Black December" last year are not great.
Debt downside, leading the recession for more than 13 months
Li Zhenhao, senior investment strategist at DBS Wealth Management, said that the current market expects the possibility of recession in Europe and the United States to be about 20% and 25% respectively. Last week, the German PMI data fell below 50, and the US bond yields were upside down. Concerns about the acceleration of the recession, the current 10-year bond yield in Germany has fallen to minus 0.017%, and the US 10-year bond yield has also fallen back to 2.44%, reflecting the influx of funds into the bond market to hedge.
He said that the market is waiting for a new round of economic data to judge the economic outlook, and that global stock markets have risen for about three months. It is not surprising that investors are taking advantage of the cash to lock in profits. I believe Hong Kong stocks will be adjusted in the short-term to digest negative The factors, based on the fact that the Sino-US economy is still relatively stable, and the Hong Kong stocks have not changed at the moment, the Hang Seng Index is currently at 27,300 points.
According to historical experience, although the US Treasury bond upside down indicates a recession, the medium-term interval is uncertain. It has led the recession for about 13 to 27 months, and the upside does not mean that the stock market will fall. After the debts were reversed in 1989 and 2006, US stocks continued to rise until the economic recession was determined and interest rate cuts began. After the long-term debt spread widened, US stocks turned downward.
Su Guojian, head of CCB International Securities Research, pointed out that the economic data of manufacturing and home sales in the Mainland and Europe and the United States have not been as good as expected, and the market has gradually revised down the first quarter results of US companies. The fuse of negative news has caused the funds to withdraw from the stock market and hedge.
The stock market is rising this year, the fund is accelerating
From the perspective of trading, Su Guojian said that the global stock market has been brave in the past two months. Many funds need to chase goods and consume a lot of cash. “The fund industry currently has a lower cash position for entering the market. The investors who entered the market early are very profitable. Naturally, I hope to make a profit first, and reserve ammunition to enter the market in the future." He expects the Hong Kong stock market to have a chance to fall below 28,000 in the short-term. It is not a good time to make a profit.
Zhou Wenling, a senior securities analyst at China Baosheng Private Bank in China and Hong Kong, believes that the Hang Seng Index has risen 10.4% this year. A slight correction is a natural phenomenon. I believe the investment community is adjusting its Fed policy, peripheral economic growth prospects and corporate performance. The view is that Hong Kong stocks may not be able to turn around, and will not repeat the sharp fall of US stocks in December last year. She also noticed that domestic demand, technology stocks and other sectors that are less sensitive to the external situation have continued to outperform the market this year, and the expected trend will not change.
The Hang Seng Index closed at 28,523 points yesterday, down 590 points or 2%. In percentage terms, it was the biggest one-day drop after January 2 this year. The H-Share Index closed at 11,232 points, down 2.5%. The market turnover was 109.3 billion yuan.