Hong Kong stocks fell 2463 points in May. “6 months are hard to be optimistic."
Sino-US trade disputes and “5 poor" (Hong Kong stocks traditionally have “5 poor, 6 and 7 turned over", which means that in May and June, they usually meet the market downturn adjustment, and then rebound in July to rise the market. Hong Kong stocks dragged the market down 2,463 points or 8.3% this month, the most hurt in 7 months.
The investment community is waiting to see whether the China-US dollar will meet at the G20 summit next month. However, the current risk aversion is still strong. The public stocks and high-yielding stocks known for their defense still have the upper hand. Not optimistic.
At present, China and the United States have not disclosed the half-headed heads-up meeting. Funds continue to flow into the bond market to avoid risks. The US 10-year bond yield has fallen to 2.22%, which is more than one-and-a-half-year low. The European government bond yields also see the same situation, dragging the Dow. In the early part of the day, it blew more than 400 points.
At 0:00 am, the night was reported at 27,203 points, down 25 points. Tencent (00700)’s ADR in the US was quoted at 322.4 yuan, 0.4 yuan higher than the closing price of 322 yuan in Hong Kong yesterday. The overall blue chip ADR performance reflected that the Hang Seng Index fell 33 points.
Tencent Construction Bank fell this month, Hong Kong stocks ended
Hong Kong stocks have fallen by 10% from the high level at the end of last month. The trend has ended with a four-month wave. The main indexes are Tencent, China Construction Bank (00939) and Ping An (02318). The three stocks have dragged down the market 928 points this month. , accounting for a cumulative decline of about 38%. Six shares were temporarily recorded this month, including the “Defense 3 Treasures" (00823), Gas (00003) and MTR (00066).
The market is concerned about the G20 summit next month, whether China and the United States will release mutual goodwill to ease disputes. Yao Yuan, senior economist at AXA Investment Management, believes that the chances of the two economies reaching a consensus during the summit are very slim, but they can be seen as an opportunity to restart the negotiations, and assume three negotiation scenarios (see table). The ideal situation is The two sides reached a consensus in the third quarter and cancelled tariff measures. The mainland does not need extra measures to stimulate the economy.
However, Yao Yuan believes that Sino-US relations have not yet seen a gradual decline. The investment strategy should be conservative. It is expected that the bond market will continue to attract safe-haven funds. It is not recommended to enter emerging market stocks under current market conditions.
DBS: debts continue to fall, fear of emerging markets
Li Zhenhao, senior investment strategist of DBS Hong Kong Investment Director’s Office (North Asia), agreed that the key to whether the Hong Kong stock market can rebound is whether the Chinese dollar can be discussed during the G20 meeting. “The situation is like the G20 meeting in Argentina at the end of last year. The Chinese dollar first agreed to a truce on the 90th, and the stock market rose from about 25,000 points to 30,000 points. If the two countries can have follow-up arrangements this time, the market will definitely be regarded as good news."
Li Zhenhao reminded that the interest rate of national debts of European countries outside the United States and Italy continued to decline. The “debt interest” of German 10-year government bonds continued, reflecting that large-scale funds from the world poured into the bond market to hedge. If the bond yields continue to decline, it will suppress the development of risky assets such as the stock market, and it is also unfavorable for emerging market currencies. Hong Kong stocks closed at 27,235 points yesterday, down 155 points, and the market turnover was 83.3 billion yuan.