Morgan Stanley: Next year China’s economy will be of high quality and speed

After Goldman Sachs made “slower but more beautiful” forecasts, Morgan Stanley also released its 2018 China Economic Outlook. Morgan Stanley believes China’s economy will enter a phase of “slower growth and higher quality.” In the “troika,” which drives the economy, investment will slow as leverage continues to move. Consumption will become the main driver of the economy, and exports will remain strong in the context of a global recovery.

In contrast with Goldman Sachs’ optimism, Morgan Stanley believes that the risks to China’s economy will tend to go downwards in 2018. The uncertainties include: monetary policy and real estate policies may tighten faster than expected, while trade frictions between China and the United States will escalate or the U.S. recession will Drag the exit. Morgan Stanley expects China’s real GDP growth to moderate moderately, with expected growth rates of 6.8%, 6.5% and 6.3% in 2017, 2018 and 2019 respectively.