The key moment of the fine price building

Major banks have announced an increase in the prime rate. Some industry insiders believe that the impact on first-time home buyers will be greater, and to a certain extent will increase their considerations and slow down their confidence in entering the market. Tang Rong agrees that the most influential market for small buildings should be uncertainty.

From the surface figures, this is a rate hike of 0.125%. If the repayment is 25 years, the monthly supply of the owner will increase by 1.4%, and the mortgage amount per million will increase by only 63 yuan. For those owners who only have one note, the building is tight, and the period is used up, I believe it will have some impact, especially this time the US raises interest rate by 0.25%. Hong Kong has not followed suit. Is it the future of Hong Kong? The US rate hike is only half plus? Did you create additional space? Hong Kong will continue to follow? These may be the first time that Hong Kong has raised the most favorable interest rate for more than a decade. From never paying attention to mortgage interest, to re-learning to pay attention to the trend of mortgage interest, the result is that no one can provide a more positive answer. Increased market uncertainty.

The rhythm of interest rate hike is difficult to measure

Another point is to add the best interest rate, the property rate is about 2.375%, check the data, the return rate of the unit below 430 square feet is about 2.6% return, if you continue to raise interest rates, add two times each time 0.125%, the theory In the thin unit market, it will trigger the topic of renting over rent and turning to renting, and investors who are vying for fine units in recent years may consider it more.

In the past, Tang Rong has mentioned many times. History shows that the rate hike is repeated three times, each time 0.25 per cent, about 0.75 per cent. The impact on the property market will change from psychological to substantive. Recently, some securities firms have proposed that the market needs to raise interest rates continuously. Three times, I will seriously believe that a cycle of continuous interest rate hikes has begun. At the end of this year, the United States and Hong Kong will add three more times next year. Hong Kong will follow Canada every time. It is about the first half of next year. It has accumulated three interest rate hikes. The real impact of interest rate hikes on property prices will finally emerge. Of course, if you calculate the interest rate, you only need to add 0.125% each time, you must accumulate 6 interest rate increases. The schedule information has been quoted many times and can be used as a reference for the performance of property prices during the interest rate increase period more than ten years ago.

Subsidized housing continues to push for competition

The banking sector also said yesterday that it is expected that in addition to interest rate hikes, the impact of the trade war will also slow down Hong Kong’s economic growth from 3 to 4% this year to 2 to 3% next year. The economic slowdown is adversely affecting the job market and will closely follow the performance of the market on the market.

Yesterday, a report from Zhongyuan Real Estate also pointed out that as of August 2018, the new round completed in 2019 had 2,745 cargo tails. The distribution by type of housing is as follows: 928 open and 1 new flats, with new flats for small and medium-sized residential developments in the New Territories. It is estimated that the number of open and new flats will be pushed up in the coming months. Can reach 2,000 levels. In the same period of the next six months, when a large number of subsidized homes were sold, it will bring competition to the private fine-street market.