29/10/2018-7

The floor blasting is similar.

The overall loans and advances of banks in Hong Kong fell for three consecutive months, and the property market turned cold. The decline in residential mortgage loans during the month was particularly eye-catching. The number of new applications for loans was reduced by more than half in a month, the largest single since the record in June 1998. Monthly decline. The property market turned weak, the most urgent is the real estate agency industry, layoffs, unpaid news, widely spread, this time the property market is a breeze, only see the real chapter next year. According to statistics from the HKMA, the number of new applications in September fell by 10,000 to 7,797, the lowest in the past 30 months. The amount of new loans decreased by 33.8% to 31.6 billion.

Newsletter Monthly: Interest rate poke breaks bubble

Chen Yongjie, vice president and head of the residential division of Centaline Property Asia, said earlier that the group’s commission income in October was 185 million yuan, a record low since February 2016. After the news of the layoffs of another agency, the United States, the Central Plains may not be able to escape the fate of the provincial staff. He urged the Government to relax the stress test from 3 to 2 per cent in the event of a downward adjustment in the property market, making it easier for the public to get on the train. In addition, he proposed to relax the SSD spicy tax or even cancel, I believe this will cause a large number of second-hand market in the market. The reduction of the spicy tax will not cause the property price to rise, but will fall. It is a reasonable and thoughtful thinking. The supply has increased and the price has naturally fallen. The government is not thinking this way and should be calculated.

As the most difficult property market in the world, the Hong Kong Tower has seen the ultimate wave top is expected, but will fall and fall slowly, and look at the development of global political and economic development next year. In this issue of the “Newsletter” article, it refers to the interest rate hikes and the tide of the capital. The Hong Kong building is in danger. Some views in this article can be discussed. The article pointed out that reviewing the past three times of property bubble bursting, are related to the rate hike cycle. First, after Japan signed the “Plaza Agreement,” the interest rate began to rise from 1989. The interest rate rose from 2.5% to 6.0% in two years, and the housing bubble burst.

The second is the Asian financial turmoil in 1997. Hong Kong property prices fell by almost 70% before they bottomed out. Hong Kong’s interest rate rose with the United States since 1994, rising from 3.63% in the fourth quarter of 1993 to 1995. In the third quarter of the year, 6.19%, and in 1997, more than 10% level, the housing bubble burst.

The third is the US sub-storm, which also appeared after the interest rate hike. Since 2004, the United States entered the interest rate hike cycle. In the three years, the US 3-month bond yield increased from 1% to 5%. In 2007, there was a secondary storm. Property prices plummeted [map], which led to the financial tsunami.

The above three examples are related to the interest rate hike, but only the trigger point. Among them, the Japanese example is more complicated. When Japan’s national strength stock index saw a level of 40,000 points, the United States regarded Japan as a potential competitive threat (similar to the current situation in China). After the yen’s appreciation, Japanese exporters were hit hard. And the capitalists who do business are not doing everything in their power to speculate. The yen has risen, and the bubble in the property market has been blown up. After the construction, the building bubble burst, the bank capital has been greatly reduced, and the economy has been sluggish.

As for the second example, the Asian financial turmoil is regional. The first thing happened in Thailand. The stock exchanges were hit by hedge funds. The regional capitalization made Hong Kong want to smother and protect foreign exchange. The interest rate once rose to 300%. . In addition, the return to the boom triggered the stock market bubble, not to mention the lack of stress testing before, the lack of credit information, a person can speculate on several floors, a first-rate perfect storm. Hong Kong is under the Linked Exchange system. It is followed by deflation for more than 60 months. How can the property market not fall? The more deadly policy of the year was the 850,000 policy, and the supply increased greatly. Both macro and micro factors made property prices easy to fall. Is the fatal factor in the interest rate hike that year? Compared with the 850,000 and the Asian financial turmoil, it is not necessarily the most deadly.

Perfect conditions, perfect storm shaping

In the third example, the US subprime storm background is that the then President, Budweth, relaxed financial supervision, letting Wall Street executives “financial innovation”, packaging mortgage assets into the highest level of investment income tools, and then leveraging these tools. It’s too big to blow the bubble. Then NINJA (ie No Income No Job Asset) people can buy property, of course foam system of foam.