Uncertainty in trade wars Hong Kong has seen weakness again Hong Kong stocks are underpinned by 28,000 support
After falling 400 points last Friday, U.S. stocks retreated more than 10% from their highs, and were technically seen as an adjustment of the market. Hong Kong stocks ADR fell by more than 400 points on Friday and fell to the 30,000-point mark again. People in the securities industry expect that there are still too many uncertainties in Sino-US trade, coupled with the weakness of Hong Kong Stock Exchange, Hong Kong stocks will have a greater chance of finding a bottom, and the Hang Seng Index is expected to test 38,000 points downstairs, with 28,000 points as support. However, there is little chance of a big drop.
Ta Kung Pao reporter Shao Shufen
When the trade war between China and the United States broke out and US stocks plunged, Hong Kong stocks could not escape their fate. They knocked on the stocks of Tencent (00700) major shareholders, causing the Hang Seng Index to erode 1140 points last Friday. The decline narrowed before the market closed, and the 30,000 mark recovered. The Hang Seng Index closed at 30309 points last Friday, down 761 points or 2.45%. The H-Share Index closed at 12,128 points, down 299 points or 2.4%. This week, a number of heavyweight Chinese financial stocks announced their results, coupled with the futures settlement, the market expected the volatility will increase.
Tencent can absorb less than 400 yuan
Huang Deji, a director of Kingston Securities Research Department, said that the trade war between China and the United States cannot be reversed. Trump is not following the rules. Fortunately, China still maintains restraint. He also analyzed that once China’s attitude becomes tougher and even threatens to sell US Treasury bonds on hand, financial markets may experience major turmoil as Sino-US relations deteriorate further. Therefore, he still has reservations about the market outlook and should not be too optimistic. The Hang Seng Index may have the chance to fall below 30,000 points, but there is no risk of falling.
Apart from Sino-U.S. relations, Hong Kong exchange weakness is also one of the factors that Hong Kong stocks can hardly rebound in the short term. He also pointed out that the one-month LIBOR was 1.85%, but the one-month HIBOR in Hong Kong was only 0.8%. Under such a large interest rate spread, Hong Kong’s exchange rate further weakened and even touched the guarantee of the weak side. This is also the reason why Hong Kong stocks cannot rebound.
Tencent’s major shareholder, Naspers, has held its shares for the first time in 17 years. Although it has voluntarily extended the lock-up period to three years, Huang Dejian believes that the shadow of selling is still lingering, and Tencent’s quarterly performance is disappointing. Falling back may affect investors’ expectations of Tencent’s future high growth.
He spoke outright. In the past, investors had always believed that Tencent was a high-growth company and it was therefore able to support its high valuation. Once the investor’s perception is reversed, it will be a catastrophe to Tencent. He believes that investing in Tencent in the future will no longer be able to “buy and hold” (buy and hold) as it used to in the past. In the future, the stock price will fluctuate and it will not rise again. However, due to the fact that the news market for stocks of major shareholders has been digested, it is expected that Tencent’s stock price will not fall sharply this week. Investors may consider taking the price below RMB400 to absorb low prices.
The first chief strategist in Shanghai, Ye Shangzhi, believes that Hong Kong stocks are still in a downtrend. The uncertainties in the trade war are the biggest problems. After the peak of performance, the market temporarily lacks new catalysts. It is estimated that the attitude of funds entering the market remains Will be cautious. He expects that there will still be a tendency for the market to look for support at lower positions. It is recommended that we be cautious and we have not yet made too much of a radical move.
Funding enthusiasm is still subject to
He added that although the rate of decline on Friday was a bit too large, there is a possibility of ushering in a stable or slight rebound first, but before the uncertainties can be eliminated, the enthusiasm for capital entry into the market will still be constrained. It is estimated that the market outlook is still downward. Looking for the bottom of the trend, and based on the bull market running pattern established last year, the HSI has an important support threshold of 28,000 points.