China and the United States exploding the trade war Hong Kong stocks are expected to open 400 points lower today
The Sino-US trade war is escalating to hit global stock markets. The three major US stock indexes fell sharply last Friday. Among them, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 425 points, more than 10% higher than the high level at the end of January, and technically entered medium-sized. Adjustment. The weak performance of US stocks also dragged down the 30,000-dollar ADRs listed in the United States. China’s ambassador to the United States, Cui Tiankai, hinted that China does not rule out reducing the purchase of U.S. debt in response to the US’s levy of tariffs on Chinese products. The market is expected to have an impact on the global bond market, or to cause a large number of market splits.
When Cui Tiankai was interviewed by foreign sources, he did not respond positively to reducing the purchase of U.S. debt, but said that he would consider all options to respond to U.S. actions. Coinciding with the US will auction 30 billion U.S. dollars of biennial bonds this week, the scale is the largest in four years. Cui Tiankai’s remarks may cause U.S. debt yields to rise further, and U.S. financing costs will also increase in the long run. At present, China is the largest overseas creditor in the United States, holding US$1.17 trillion in U.S. debt, accounting for about 20% of U.S. debt held overseas.
Debt market fears the tide of dismantling
The above news caused US stocks and ADRs to both fall. Based on the proportion of decline, Hong Kong stocks are expected to open nearly 400 points lower today and fall below the 30,000 point mark. Some bond traders pointed out that if China sells U.S. debt, U.S. treasury yields will rise. This will not only increase the pressure on the U.S. dollar, but also increase the cost of financing, which will be detrimental to global capital flows, and may also cause funds parked in Asia to be dismantled. The cash flow is now flowing back to the United States. It can be said that selling US debt is harmful to both parties.
The first chief strategist in Shanghai, Ye Shangzhi, said that since March, the Hong Kong stocks have been a pattern of “repetition, ups and downs, consolidation and transformation”, and this pattern has evolved to the end and will only be a result of a big ups and downs. Obviously, the market has chosen to break down this time. He pointed out that the performance period has passed and the supportive power of Hong Kong stocks has weakened. The news that the United States, including raising interest rates and trade wars, have all been introduced, naturally dragging down the performance of Hong Kong stocks.
At present, Hong Kong stocks are still in a downtrend. Since the biggest uncertainty is the trade war, this factor cannot be diluted in the short term. The market is also temporarily lacking new positive news. He estimates that the capital is conservative in entering the market and the Hang Seng Index has the opportunity to explore 29,129 To 29,852 this range. He urged investors not to be aggressive at the moment. Even if there is a slight rebound, it will only be a time to reduce the code. If the market panics to sell, it is a cheap opportunity. Technically, the Hang Seng Index’s important support is at 28,000 points.
Fu Guobin, Managing Director of Evergrande Financial Asset Management, stated that this year’s investment market faces multiple challenges, not only the normalization of monetary policy, but also the volatility of the market should revert to the previous level. The long-term low VIX index will no longer be expected. Hong Kong stocks will get more and more ups and downs.
He pointed out that after the United States announced trade measures against China on Thursday, the local VIX index rose by more than 30% in one day, US stocks tumbled, and safe-haven assets such as US debt, Japanese yen and gold rose higher. The market turned conservative.
Tencent or break through 400 levels
When Tencent (0700), the “shareholder”, was reduced by its major shareholder, it ran into a big downtrend. Tu Guobin said that Tencent had fallen below 10 days, 20 days, 50 days and 100 antennas, technically it would not rule out falling below 400 yuan. Support, investors want to Bo rebound, it is recommended not to be anxious, short-term focus on conservative, wait and see.
On the HSI side, he pointed out that it is necessary to watch whether the low of 29,852 points on March 5th can be maintained. If it fails, the market outlook may have to lower the year’s low, that is, 29,129 points on February 9, due to the index future this week. Clearing, and only four trading days, it is not easy for the big market to rebound. In addition to following up on the trade war, the market outlook should also pay attention to the performance of Chinese banks.