Zeng Yuancang column: the stock market is still difficult to collapse the property market
After Moody’s downgraded China’s sovereign bond rating, the Chinese government immediately announced a change in the renminbi pricing mechanism, adding a counter-cyclical adjustment factor to the daily pricing mechanism. The so-called counter-cyclical adjustment factor is when the renminbi is weak and falling , When the pricing to increase the exchange rate; when the yuan bias is strong, is rising, the pricing to reduce the exchange rate. As a result, the yuan will tend to stabilize, volatility, the RMB exchange rate stability, the outflow of the situation will ease, on the AIA (1299), Manulife (945) favorable.
Today, China is trying to open a variety of markets, that is, the financial market is not open, semi-open, RMB freely convertible, free floating in the foreseeable future, the stock market can only pass through Shanghai and Hong Kong, Shenzhen and Hong Kong, QFII, RQFII semi-open.
Over the past few years, MSCI has been successful every year by adding some of China’s A shares to China’s open stock market, which is still unsuccessful. If the MSCI can join China’s A shares under the rules set by China, the Chinese government will welcome. However, the full liberalization of the market so far is still impossible, or closed the door security, so that the Chinese aunt let the crocodile eat. Open the yuan may be more terror, there will be more serious than the Asian financial turmoil of the Chinese financial turmoil. After the Asian financial turmoil, Indonesia’s ruling president and military chief Suhartu stepped down for 30 years, and the Chinese government could not not learn the lesson.
May 19, the HKMA announced a new tightening of bank mortgage measures, after several days, the banks are still waiting to see, no movement. On May 26th, the Hong Kong People’s Bank (2888), BOC Hong Kong (2388) and HSBC (005) announced the rate hike on the same day. , Hang Seng (011) also announced to raise interest rates, are plus 0.1%, H by 1.3% + H to 1.4% + H.
For the time being, I do not think that I will not affect the property and the desire to buy a few months ago. I have mentioned that we should not forecast the trend of property prices. I think the property market is closely related to the stock market. It must be the collapse of the stock market. Now, the stock market and the property market are in the rising period, regardless of a building or a stock, may wish to continue to hold, fly a kite.