50 experts in the property market, the pulse is becoming more cautious. Optimistically dispatching the first half of the year to adjust. The pessimistic faction is down 20%.

The property market turned to the trend in the second half of 2018. The comprehensive 50 expert analysis of the newspaper analyzed that nearly 90% of the property market tends to be cautious in 2019. The more optimistic view is that the adjustment period is the fastest in the first half of the year, but the most pessimistic is that the property price is down 20%; The US trade war has become the key to affecting the property market.

After a 10-year rising cycle, the property market rose first and then returned last year. In the first seven months, it rose nearly 12%. After the trade war warmed up and the new housing policy was introduced, the 28-month wave was broken and the trend turned downward in August. The year-on-year (as of November) property price growth narrowed to 4.6%. Looking forward to 2019, is the property price correction only a short-lived, or is the decline worse?

According to the opinions of 50 developers, real estate agents and surveying industry, nearly 90% of this year’s property market is cautious. Among them, 33 people think that property prices are stable, accounting for 70% of the total. They believe that the property market trend depends on the changes in the trade war, and it will be resolved in the first quarter or the second quarter. The market conditions will turn stable in the second half of the year. The estimated price volatility is about 5%. Up to 10%.

However, 20% (11) of the experts are pessimistic about the property market. They are a year of more bearish proportions in the past few years. They mainly believe that although the local economic tone is stable and the rigid demand is strong, the property market is plagued by many factors, and the periphery depends on Whether the Sino-US conflict can be resolved in the short-term, if the trade war continues to affect the local and global economy, and then drag on the Hong Kong stock market and the property market, the property price will fall 15% to 20% this year; Up to 2 to 3 years.

Increase the supply of public housing, increase the price of the building

About 10% (6) of experts predict that property prices will rise, and believe that the economic foundation is good. After the trade war factor is eliminated, the strong need just to support the property price upwards, is expected to rise 5% to 10%.

In addition to the trade war, other factors affecting the property market, including the slowdown in China’s economic growth, may hinder the flow of mainland funds into Hong Kong, while the pace of interest rate hikes in the United States has slowed down, but the shrinking schedule has gradually increased, leaving a worry about the local economic outlook.

In addition, the Government has introduced a number of new housing strategies and increased the proportion of public housing to 70%. In the long run, the supply of private housing will be reduced. Even if the first car is included, the supply of private buildings will be reduced to 25% to 135,000 in the next 10 years. At the same time, they actively build houses, test the public’s confidence in entering the market and drive the trend of the property market.

The Government has increased the supply of subsidized housing to help people get on the train. The small and medium-sized units account for a relatively large proportion. Some of the customers have the opportunity to overlap with the private buildings. Moreover, the fine-priced buildings are vulnerable to the fluctuation of the property market. It is estimated that the property prices will be adjusted more urgently this year. In fact, last year, small and medium-sized units rose 12.2% in the first seven months and then fell more than 7.2%. However, luxury homes rose by 6.5% and then fell by 6.1%. This shows that small and medium-sized units are more susceptible to atmospheric fluctuations.

After 90, the price of the building is rising.

The property price has been adjusted, and the market has a wait-and-see atmosphere. However, some of the buyers are eager to enter the market. They think that this adjustment, as in 2015-2016, will rebound after about 10% adjustment, and will continue to record high, so this time the property price is Only about 5% from the high level, but can’t wait to enter the market.

In recent days, a new market in Kwun Tong has been on sale. Although the property price has exceeded $10 million, it has also seen young people entering the market. A post-90s buyer bluntly said that he had just come out of social work and had not saved much money. He was able to enter the market this time. The main reason was that his father funded the first phase, and the developer offered a high number of mortgages.

He is worried that property prices will only become more and more expensive. Even if it is currently in an adjustment period, it is believed that it will only be temporarily fine-tuned and the chance of a big downturn will not be high.