Hong Kong’s retail sales in February fell 10% in the past two years, the first drop in electrical appliances, plugged in two and a half, the lightest in the first half of the year, the market is difficult to be optimistic
The provisional estimate of the value of retail sales in Hong Kong in February was 40.7 billion yuan, down 10.1% year-on-year, far below market expectations of a 3.6% increase, the first time in 23 months, and the largest since August 2016. The decline [map], the sales volume also significantly regressed 10.4%. Excluding the Lunar New Year factor, total retail sales fell 1.6% in the first two months of this year, while sales volume fell 1.8%.
Retailers said that in March, business could only be flat or slightly down. The retail sales in the first quarter recorded negative growth year-on-year, and it was not optimistic about the market in the first half of the year. Some economists believe that with the gradual clarification of the Sino-US trade war and the Brexit process, and the stabilization of global stock markets, it is confident that the retail market will be better in the second half of the year than in the first half of the year.
Beads and pills are growing backwards
The retail sales of major categories recorded a decline in February, with the largest decline in retail sales of electrical appliances and other uncategorized consumer goods, which was a sharp drop of 25.3% year-on-year. The categories related to the consumption of mainland tourists decreased from up to down. The retail sales of jewellery, watches and clocks and valuable gifts decreased from 4.1% in January to 9.7%. The retail sales of medicines and cosmetics increased by 13.5% from January. It has fallen back to 9.8%.
In the first two months of this year, the retail sales of the two categories of electrical appliances and jewellery fell by 18.3% and 2.8% respectively, while the retail sales of pharmaceuticals and cosmetics rose slightly by 2.3%.
A government spokesman pointed out that the retail sales performance in the past month was weak, reflecting the impact of external uncertainties. Consumer sentiment remained cautious. It is expected that short-term retail sales will continue to be affected by the slowdown in global economic growth and the external environment, but full employment and inbound tourism. Continued growth can support the market.
The Chairman of the Hong Kong Retail Management Association, Mr. Xie Qiuyi, believes that this year’s Lunar New Year in February, the public consumption in January, the retail sales in February fell more significantly; if the Lunar New Year factor, the first two months of this year, retail sales only down 1.6% This is mainly due to the Sino-US trade war, the depreciation of the renminbi and the economic slowdown in the Mainland.
However, she pointed out that even if the number of Mainland visitors to Hong Kong increases, it does not mean that it can promote Hong Kong’s consumer market. At present, the Mainland’s tourist travel model is diversified and it is not just shopping. But it has always been better. People flow.”
The stock market stabilized in the second half or improved
Xie Qiuyi also revealed that according to retail members’ reports, the business in March was flat or slightly down from last year. The larger business volume in the first quarter recorded a year-on-year decline. However, there were no merchants adjusting the number of shops and layoffs. In terms of jewellery and clocks, she said that the retail sales began to decline in November last year and rose slightly in January this year. It is believed that the number of units will fall in March and April, mainly due to Sino-US trade disputes and the renminbi.
Zhou Shengsheng (00116) Liu Kebin, general manager of Greater China Operations, said that although the number of mainland visitors increased during the Spring Festival, they mainly purchased gold jewelry for their own use, and the consumption was lower than that of customers who purchased wedding jewellery. . Looking forward to April, Liu Kebin said that in the past year, the company launched a promotional campaign, which will continue during the Easter holiday in April, including the launch of manual discounts, which will stimulate the sales of gold jewelry.
Xue Junsheng, chief economist of Hang Seng Bank, said that the main reason for the sharp decline in retail sales in February was the high base last year, coupled with stock market and property market volatility, as well as the public’s anxiety about the economic downturn, which caused consumer sentiment to decline. As global stock markets stabilized, the US Federal Reserve The suspension of interest rate hikes and the implementation of tax reductions and tax reductions in the Mainland are all beneficial to the retail market. He is confident that the retail industry can get rid of the trade war and the Brexit haze. The performance in the second half will be better than the first half of the year. Forecast of the increase in the number of low units.