Damco’s bearish Chinese stocks have not fallen into the market
Global interest rate cuts are expected to rise and the periphery is rising, failing to bring a similar rebound for the HSCEI and A-share indices. A-shares have fallen more and more, reflecting the fragility of the market. It is no wonder that Morgan Stanley has bleak Chinese stocks and refers to Shanghai. The Shenzhen 300 Index no longer outperforms the market, and downgrades the MSCI China Index to coincide with the market, emphasizing that it is not the time to enter the market.
The three major indexes of A-shares fell sharply yesterday, and the Shanghai-Shenzhen 300 Index saw a high of 3,634 points yesterday, a low of 3,593 points, and finally fell 1 point to close at 3,597 points. The Shanghai Composite Index was 2,888 points and 2,858 points, and finally fell. Less than 1 point, closing at 2861 points. The Shenzhen Component Index fell 2 points to close at 8746 points. The total turnover of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock indices fell to less than RMB 408 billion. The trend of the HSCEI is similar to that of the A-shares, but the results are very small, as it still rose by 3 points throughout the day, closing at 10,345 points, with a turnover of 24.9 billion yuan. The red chip index rose by 1 point to close at 4,266 points, with a turnover of about 3.7 billion yuan.
Global currency policy is becoming more relaxed
In fact, US stocks soared, the market cut interest rates globally, because New Zealand and Australia have cut interest rates in a month, the European Central Bank also said in March that it will launch a new round of targeted long-term refinancing operations, the Bank of Japan also continued to loosen the policy, the US Federal Reserve Chairman Powell again Implying interest rate cuts may indicate that global monetary policy may turn more lenient. For the big market that continues to pull back, the relevant news can become a catalyst for the market to rise sharply. However, the Chinese and Hong Kong stock markets fell back yesterday, reflecting the fragility of the market. It is also one of the reasons why the H-Share Index has not seen a similar rebound in the past one and a half months. Therefore, under the stimulus of comprehensive positive factors yesterday, the stock markets in China and Hong Kong still showed a trend of rising first and then returning. It seems that the market is really diversifying to rebound and rebounding. Today is the solar terms, and whether the market will turn around. .
The H-Share Index has risen and fallen between 10300 and 10500 in the past two weeks. If it breaks, it will cover the two rising gaps in early January. On the contrary, the resistance will be at 20 antennas (now at 10591). I have the opportunity to return to the author’s expected rebound target of 250 antennas (now at 10888), which is the boundary between the bull and the bear. It is only the actions of major central banks to cut interest rates or intentionally cut interest rates, or reflect that the global economic recession is just around the corner. The central bank has been eager to take measures to prevent recession. It is only a big opportunity for the Sino-US trade war to escalate. It will be the trigger for the global economic recession. Actively cut interest rates or instead touch the nerves of investors and rush to leave. However, the loose liquidity of the People’s Bank of China is not active. If major countries cut interest rates, China should follow it. It should not be self-righteous to tighten liquidity on the grounds of taking care of the overall situation.
In fact, as long as the People’s Bank of China cuts the operating rates of the open market such as reverse repo, MLF, TMLF, etc., it has already cut interest rates, which can bring support to the market. If the loan interest rate is directly reduced, there is also a chance to stimulate the market to appear. The rebound is only because the mainland is like a flood of beasts for relaxing mobility. If you are afraid of the market, it will be helpless to the market, and it will be difficult to stimulate domestic demand. It is also inconsistent with the policy of reducing the cost of small and medium-sized enterprises. In fact, the author has always believed that the wealth effect is the driving force for consumption growth. The central government is still destocking for real estate. I believe that the rising price of property prices is limited. On the contrary, the mainland stock market is low. Instead, it is the key to stimulating consumption. The SSE target is 4000 points or more. Whether it is true or not, the A-share bottoming out will inevitably limit domestic demand and the wisdom of the central leadership will be broken!
Pay attention to shares not related to the war
Although the author always has a chance to rebound in the short-term market, but the opportunity of a comprehensive rebound in the early part of the morning also ended in a down market, but the second half of the previous two months, the national index and the Shanghai-Shenzhen target Morgan Stanley re-entered yesterday. Report, downgrading the MSCI China index to synchronize with the market, and pointed out that the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock indexes are no longer expected to outperform the market. Therefore, after the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock indexes were lowered to 3,650 points, the index has been on the target. The Shanghai and Shenzhen index will be lowered to 2,460 points, which means that the index may have a potential decline of 32% in the worst case, while the national and basic bear targets of the H-Share Index are 10,720 and 6,850 respectively. The latter is even 2016. The low of 7498 points in February will also fall below. It is no wonder that the bank said that although the market is down, it is not the time to enter the market.
Morgan Stanley explained that the reason for the bleak Chinese stocks was that the bank lowered its index earnings forecast and lowered the ratings of autos and banks to keep pace with the market. However, in the case of escalation of the trade war, you can pay attention to short-term low-beta, high-interest, and the lowest income from the United States, such as China Resources Power (00836), Huaneng Power (00902), Kunlun Energy (00135), China Resources Gas ( 01193) and Sinopharm (01099), etc., the reader can refer to.