Moto: The property market is getting better.
The turnover of second-hand housing in Hong Kong has rebounded, but Liang Qizhen, head of JPMorgan Asia Real Estate and Hong Kong Equity Research, believes that there is still room for 7% decline in the second quarter of second-hand housing. To confirm the emergence of Xiaoyangchun, second-hand transactions must rise back to over 100 levels.
When accepting the interview, Mr Leung said that the property market in Hong Kong has turned very fast. The demand for the new market has been increasing immediately after the price reduction. This has increased his confidence in the prospects of the property market. As the rebound in the transaction will improve the market sentiment, it will drive the property market to rebound. The property market has not yet bottomed out. It is expected that the property price will fall another 7% to complete the adjustment. Then it will rebound from 5% to 7% from the beginning of the second quarter to the end of the second quarter.
The funds have not left the port, and the property price is hard to fall.
“When the global roadshow was held in the past three weeks, most investors in Hong Kong, Europe, the United States or Singapore considered that there was not much room for decline in the residential property market in Hong Kong.”
Liang Qichen pointed out that the factor supporting the long-term rise in property prices is capital. After the financial crisis, China and the United States “released water”, resulting in a substantial expansion of the banking system balance in the past decade. At present, funds have not left Hong Kong at all, so short-term economic growth and wage increases will be released. Slow, only slowing down the increase in property prices, unless the credit growth in the Mainland is reversed, “As long as the funds do not go away, the property prices will not fall.”
The US Federal Reserve officials’ comments are becoming more and more dovish, and the market and the authorities will suspend the contract. Mr Leung said that the interest rate of Hong Kong was lower than that of the United States. It stems from the abundant balance of the banking system in Hong Kong. At present, everyone expects that the United States will start to raise interest rates or suspend water collection, which means that the interest rate hike cycle of Hong Kong has been completed.
Chinese-funded competition reduces Hong Kong capital
The correlation between Hong Kong’s property market and the stock market is high. He believes that both of them reflect the same risk factor. When the economy expects to decline, the market is worried that corporate profits will fall, wages will fall, and all stocks will be unfavorable. At present, inflation and unemployment are normal. Level, but be careful about the progress of the trade.
In recent years, Hong Kong-owned property developers have become more and more brave in the land market. Liang Qizhen said that compared with two to three years ago, Hong Kong-invested developers were more active in absorbing the land bank and their investment enthusiasm was improved. It is only enough for two to three years to develop, and it is also related to the reduction of Chinese competitors.
Hainan Airlines’ Hong Kong International Construction Investment (00687) confirmed on Sunday that it is negotiating with potential buyers to sell the last Kai Tak site. As a result of the fact that many of the developers have land in Kai Tak, the opportunity for the sale of land at low prices is very low. It is believed that the developers will “maintain order” when bidding for land and will not cause property prices to plummet.