Star Show property prices fell 5% in the second half of the year
Xie Jiaxuan, an economist at the DBS Economic Research Department, said that if the Sino-US trade war continues to heat up, it will put downward pressure on Hong Kong’s property market. From the year-to-date, property prices have risen by about 10%. The bank expects property prices to rise by about 5% this year. In other words, there will be a potential decline of about 5% in the future.
Xie Jiaxuan said that the HSI fell about 10% from the high of the year, and the property market response usually lags. If the trade war continues to deteriorate, it is expected that after two months, the downward pressure on property prices will increase.
The bank estimates that Hong Kong’s economic growth this year is about 2.5%, while the mainland slows down to 6.2%. Zhou Hongli, senior economist of the DBS Economic Research Department, said that there will be two targeted RRR cuts in the Mainland this year, 0.5 percentage points each time. Sexuality leads to the real economy.
Zhou Hongli also mentioned that as the trade war has intensified, the renminbi has downward pressure against the US dollar and is expected to fall to 6.9 this year. When asked whether it will “break 7″, he thinks that it is politically and economically sensitive. Even if “breaking 7″, the PBOC will need to test whether the market can withstand the greater volatility of the exchange rate and gradually depreciate the RMB.
300 billion US dollars of goods taxation opportunities are high
Zhou Hongli believes that the United States has higher tariffs on the remaining US$300 billion in Chinese goods, including consumer goods such as mobile phones and tablets. He predicted that the United States needs to study the specific tax rate, such as the tax rate of 200 billion US dollars of Chinese goods increased from 10% to 25%, affecting the GDP growth of the mainland by about 1 percentage point; if the tax on Chinese goods is fully taxed, GDP growth The impact is 1.5 percentage points.