Zhuo Baide: property prices or down two into the real estate stocks are still buying units to increase profits leading developers profit

Director of Morgan Stanley, former director of the Churchouse Publishing, who has studied the property market in Asia Pacific for more than 30 years, predicted that the central government would speed up the closing of the “Nineteenth” next month Property prices are likely to fall one to two into. (1113) and the new land (0016) this year, the sale of the harvest, has locked a lot of profits, coupled with the number of reliable units sold in the future growth, to maintain profitability, even if the property prices bearish, these leading property stocks remain Have investment value. Ming Pao reporter Ye Chuangcheng

Zhuo Baide in early August 2015 has been interviewed, when the mainland A shares fell, Hong Kong stocks also followed the plunge, the property market has a rain, the downward trend. However, Zhuo Baide was surprised at the same time, and from the real interest rate, for the supply of housing, to pay the first phase of capacity and affordability of the building and other angles analysis, refers to the Hong Kong market outlook, full of confidence. Although property prices have fallen more than 10% in August 2015 and March last year, they have rebounded in the past 17 months. At present, they have not only recovered their land and have surpassed that of the Hong Kong dollar in August 2015. Accurate city.

In the current property prices at a record high, most people optimistic about the market outlook, more than a thousand buyers to buy a new disk 4 tarts of the occasion, the reporter once again visit Zhuo Baide consult the property market, he again raised non-mainstream In the next month, the “Ninth National Congress” will increase the strength of the Mainland’s economy to leverage, the impact of Hong Kong property prices from the current high down 10% to 20%, that is not the current purchase good time.

The central material is expected to be replenished during the next season

Zhuo Baide explained that China’s overall debt-to-GDP ratio has risen over the past 10 years. He believes that the central authorities have realized that this trend is unsustainable and will be resolved after the appointment of the “nineteenth” Debt problem. As for the specific policy of deleveraging, the People’s Bank of China has adopted a relatively tight monetary policy, in particular, to strengthen the supervision of shadow banks, control market liquidity, and many lack of competitiveness of the “zombie enterprises” material so closed, the silver non-performing loan ratio expected substantial Rising, individual small and medium banks are more likely to have problems, the renminbi also have the opportunity to restart the depreciation of the road again.

According to the analysis of Zhuo Baide, if the mainland economy is once again in the adjustment period, the property market will also be adversely affected. “Even if the economy itself is not a problem, it will always be affected by the periphery. You think that in 1997, the financial turmoil swept through Asia , The economic fundamentals of Hong Kong are not bad. However, since Thailand has taken the lead in devaluing the currency, the other countries have followed the chain effect. The Hong Kong stock market and the property market have also fallen. Over the past 20 years, Hong Kong has become increasingly close to the Mainland. , Once the mainland economy fluctuates, the price of property in Hong Kong will also be adjusted. ” For example, in the period from August 2015 to March last year, property prices in Hong Kong have dropped from more than 10%, which is caused by the Mainland’s factors. Therefore, if some people think that property prices in Hong Kong will only rise straight, Will fall, is a wrong idea. ”

The United States and the United States to raise interest rates faster than the end of the property prices difficult to fall

However, Zhuo Baide predicted that US inflation will continue to remain low, the Federal Reserve even if the end of this year to raise interest rates, up to another year to raise interest rates one or two, interest rate cycle will come to an end, so the current real interest rate in Hong Kong, It is an important factor in supporting property prices in the future. In addition, although the average annual supply of private residential properties in Hong Kong in the next three or three years is expected to recover over the past 10 years, with an annual interest rate of about 27 000 The ratio of total housing and property values ​​in Hong Kong is less than 50%. There is no excessive borrowing and borrowing from banks. In view of the above positive factors, he believed that even if the Mainland water was down, one or two of the property prices in Hong Kong would be supported after the resumption of the disaster from 1997 to 2003.

Developers have locked profits at high levels

Since the Hong Kong property has been adjusted without a drop, Zhuo Baide believe that leading property stocks still have investment value. He compiled, Cheung Kong and new land sales this year, harvest (compiled by: the first eight months of this year, more than 2750 units sold more than 40.5 billion units; cash over the new period of more than 2,200 units sold, more than 260 Billion dollar) has been locked in a lot of property prices in the future, even if the property prices fall slightly, the number of shares by the sale of the number of units, is expected to force profit performance, I believe its share price rise is not finished, “leading property stocks This year has risen more than 30%, it is estimated that the next year can still be recorded unit growth.

Zhuo Baide small file

Is a private investor, including owned and operated by its family company, Portwood Co. Ltd, publisher of The ChurchouseLetter and independent non-executive director of Longhu Real Estate (0960) and Hysan Societe Generale (0014)

From 2004 to 2009, he was the director and “responsible officer” of the Asian Investment Fund LIMAdvisors. Prior to that, he worked for Morgan Stanley since 1988, where he served as Managing Director and Advisor Director, Head of Regional Studies, Regional Strategist and Head of Regional Property Research, which accurately predicted the 1997 Asian financial turmoil advent