Second-hand property market is currently falling in price. Nomura estimates that 13% next year

The property market is showing signs of turning, and large housing estates have successively fallen in price in a short period of time. The two-bedroom unit of Kingswood Villas in Tin Shui Wai has returned to the level of May; the three-bedroom unit in Sha Tin City has fallen about 11% from the similar units in July. Guo Meizhen, head of real estate research at Nomura Hong Kong, said that Hong Kong’s residential property prices are expected to fall by 13% next year.

The property market is now turning, and Nomura is expecting that Hong Kong’s residential property prices will fall by more than 10% next year. (data picture)

Jiahu sells 5.2 million back to May price

The above-mentioned Jiahu Mountain Villa Lihu is a three-story low-rise two-bedroom unit with a saleable area of ​​442 square meters, sold for 5.2 million yuan, which is the price at May, and the price is about 11,765 yuan. It is understood that the same number of units in the same period, the highest transaction price at the end of July has risen to 5.89 million yuan.

At the same time, the G room of the middle floor of Block 10 of Lehuju, the original house, was originally priced at 6 million yuan. It was sold for 5.8 million yuan a day. It was about 10% lower than the high price of similar units, with a practical area of ​​548 square meters. The price is about 10,584 yuan. Xiangyi Real Estate Xie Liguan explained that due to the fall in trading, the owners began to reduce the price in order to earn a profit.

In addition to the Kingswood Villas, the first city in Sha Tin, which is also a listed vehicle in the New Territories, after the price of the featured households last week was over the standard households, the United States property Weng Kaijie revealed that the estate has 19 low-rise B rooms. The unit, the practical area of ​​451 square meters, just reduced the price to 7.1 million yuan change hands, the same unit in July the highest price of 7.98 million yuan, that is, the price drop of about 11%, the price of about 15,743 yuan, is a recent low.

He also said that the two-bedroom flats in the same housing estate were not spared. They fell below the “six-ball". Among them, 19 were a medium-sized and practical 327-square-foot flat, with a change of about $5.88 million and a price of $17,982. In addition to the price drop, the housing market yesterday saw two silver main plates, 50 high-rise B rooms and 47 high-rise D rooms, all of which are two-bedroom units. The asking price is only about 5.5 million yuan and 5.8 million yuan.

The interest rate is worse, the return is worse.

Major Hong Kong banks such as HSBC, Hang Seng (00011), Bank of China (Hong Kong) (02388) and Standard Chartered have raised their mortgage interest rates earlier. Foreign exchange quoted Guo Meijun as saying that mortgage interest rates and rental returns are not attractive, Hong Kong property market is gaining momentum It will weaken, property prices or callbacks in the second half of the year, but the property price pressure will be more significantly reflected next year.

She added that after eight years, the return on investment in the Hong Kong property market is higher than the interest rate, which creates a positive spread. However, as the housing supply in Hong Kong increases and the interest rate rises, this situation may reverse and become a negative spread, and the return on investment will not become attract. She continued that at the end of the five-year period, affected by the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike, Hong Kong property prices fell by 13% in just six months. This situation is entirely possible to repeat itself. It is expected that property prices will fall by 13% next year and will increase this year’s property prices. Completely eliminated.

Xu Zhiwen, a professor at the Department of Architecture and Real Estate at the Polytechnic University, said that Hong Kong’s interest rate hike is imperative. In the first half of the year, property prices have risen by more than 10%. The rest of the year will slow down. Even if it continues upwards, the rate will not exceed 3%. . He also believes that if the rate hike is faster than expected in the future, property prices may fall early next year.