When the property price falls to a few hours, it will only be asthmatic?

According to the Land Registry’s figures, property prices in Hong Kong peaked at the end of August. In the past two months, the author has also analyzed the second-hand property prices in the period of this adjustment (transition?) through the different property market indicators. Potential decline (see October 25, 2018, “Along the map” and December 19, Japanese column). From the perspective of time and space, will the price of the property fall to a few hours before it stops (or asthma)?

As in the previous analysis, from the trend of second-hand property prices in the past 15 years, it can be found that the whole property market can be divided into six small waves, from 2003 to 2005, 2007, 2009 to 2011, and 2012. Rising waves from 2013, 2014 to 2015 and 2016 to this year. It can be seen from the previous five small rising waves that the property market enters the rising cycle every time, and the long-term market is wide (that is, the ratio of the 10-week moving average price of the 128 housing estates to the 50-week moving average price) is 90% or more. The short time is about 60 weeks, and the long time is 95 weeks or more. This time, the property market began to rise in 2016, and the long-term market has maintained a level of over 90% for a period of 107 weeks. This coincides with the time when the author predicts that property prices will weaken (see August 30th). Potential”).

In the past, when the property market began to enter the fall/adjustment phase, the long-term market widened below the threshold of 90%, and often fell to 25% or lower. At present, the mayor of this building has only fallen below this threshold on November 18, and the current level is still at a high position of 65.6%; in other words, the trend of the first wave of short-term property market has not yet been completed. However, according to the current rate of decline in the city’s width, it is expected to fall below 25% or lower in about two months; then, property prices may first (short) appear to stabilize/surge. In other words, the second-hand property market has a great chance to usher in a round of “Xiaoyangchun” after the Lunar New Year.

As for the more important question, is the property market bottoming out after the completion of the first wave of decline? After rebounding / stabilizing, will it regain its decline? One of the keys is to look at the quality of the city’s subsequent rebound. Do you see the mystery?