In the past 10 years, the Government has introduced anti-cyclical measures at 8 degrees. The contents are not limited to tightening mortgages, lowering the ceiling on contributions and income ratios, and strengthening stress tests. Although the HKMA has repeatedly stressed that measures are aimed at maintaining the stability and reduction of the banking system. The building is based on risk, but many people interpret it as a trick to cool the property market. During the period, property prices have not been lowered, and they have risen more than doubled, which has brought a series of side effects to the market.
With reference to the current measures, if it is the first customer, when purchasing a property of less than 10 million yuan, the maximum number of mortgages is 60%, and 10 million yuan or more can be 50%. Through the mortgage insurance scheme, the mortgage can be up to 80% of the property below 600,000 yuan, and 90% of the property below 4.5 million yuan. However, the source of this price has been purchased less frequently. In other words, assuming that the purchase of a unit of $6 million is subject to a first-phase payment of $1.2 million, how can a university student in Hong Kong save an average of $15,000 last year and how long will it take to save the first period?
Mortgage tightens, the public “buy" the first floor
Apart from the increase in the threshold of the first phase, there are still a lot of fees including stamp duty, which have further reduced the attractiveness of second-hand buildings. The number of transactions has been greatly reduced. With reference to the data of the Land Registry, after the rounds of government rounds, second-hand properties Trading continued to shrink and linger at low levels. For example, from 2016 to 2019, the annual second-hand trading volume maintained a total of about 37,000 to 42,000 cases, a significant decrease from 68,000 to 103,000 per year from 2006 to 2019.
On the other hand, the developer has changed a series of high-margin mortgages, two-buttons and flexible payment methods to absorb the demand of the second-hand market. The first-time passengers are only investing in the new market. Over time, one hand Property prices gradually dominate the market trend, unit supply and price, and also introduce strange phenomena such as “nano-disk".
The author understands that the government does not want to easily adjust or relax measures before the supply is in place. It is afraid to send out false information and stimulate market rebound. However, unless the economy reverses or a major event like SARS occurs, the market demand is not necessarily It will be reduced by the Government and the HKMA. The facts also reflect that each time the property price will only fall back or rampage, and then quickly rise again.
Reverse the rise of second-hand buildings
Regardless of whether the property price rises or falls, the author believes that the government needs to take care of the demand, relax the mortgage, and lower the threshold for home ownership. The prospective buyers who are relatively less well-funded may not have to buy a lot of flats. There are more different sources. Secondly, the second-hand building will continue to show a “dry-up" situation of “high price and low quantity", and it will respond to the circulation status slightly; thirdly, it will not allow developers to specialize in beauty and reduce the dominance of the first-hand building to the market.
For example, if the property is the first home or the flat for the use of the property, when the purchase of a property of less than 10 million yuan, the mortgage rate can be increased from 60% to 75% or higher. In addition, the definition of “on the train" has risen from $3 to $4 million to $5 and $6 million. Is it possible to consider raising the threshold of 90% of the insurance plan to $6 million? It is also close to the actual situation of the society.