Can the property market Xiaoyangchun be maintained?

In the first quarter of this year, the mainland’s social integration increased by 8.18 trillion yuan (RMB, the same below), which was 2.34 trillion yuan more than the same period of the previous year, which was significantly higher than expected. At the end of March, broad money (M2) increased by 8.6% year-on-year to 13 months. Since the new high. In connection with the recovery of the real estate market in March, the volume of transactions in all cities has increased, and the first-tier cities have been significantly heavy. Under the effect of credit exceeding expectations, can the property market “Xiaoyangchun” continue for a longer period of time?

At the beginning of the year, the city lowered the interest rate of mortgage loans

Benefiting from the unexpected growth of the currency, the banking industry has sufficient liquidity. Although real estate credit is strictly controlled by the flow of funds, the mortgage is still the only one that can put high-quality assets. Bank loans are generally loosened during the implementation of the “limited loan” policy. It is reflected in the following two points:

First, from January to February of the beginning of the year, Beijing, Shanghai, Qingdao, Hefei and other cities have successively lowered the interest rate of mortgage loans. Typically, such as Hefei, two families with settled mortgages, the mortgage interest rate is implemented with reference to the first set of interest rates.

Second, from March to April, some banks in some cities began to cut the down payment ratio of the first suite to as low as 20%. For example, Foshan is the first city to reduce the down payment ratio. The homeless and non-loan families purchase the first suite in the non-restricted area, and the minimum down payment ratio is reduced to 20%. In addition, since April 10, the first suite will be purchased without a home without a loan, and the Xuzhou Postal Savings Bank will perform a minimum of 20% down payment, but the actual down payment ratio will depend on the customer’s personal qualifications, including income, work unit, repayment income ratio, Comprehensive scores such as deadlines and marital status.

We believe that there will still be more cities in the future that will lower the mortgage interest rate, and most cities will resume the benchmark interest rate, and even do not rule out the discount rate again.

The cargo policy continued to be significantly loose and uncertain

In the first quarter, the social welfare exceeded expectations. Considering that the social welfare data has a certain leading edge to the macro economy, a number of economic indicators such as the manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) and exports in March exceeded expectations, and the typical export growth in March was 21.3. %, the trade with the United States has also turned from negative to positive. It indicates that the macroeconomic downturn is expected to improve significantly, and it is expected to stabilize and rebound in the second quarter. At the same time, the “Xiaoyangchun” market in the real estate market in March will increase the uncertainty that monetary policy will continue to be largely loose.

In March, the cumulative turnover of commercial housing in 79 key monitoring cities was 38.22 million square meters, up 8% and 89% respectively. Among them, first-tier cities saw significant volume transactions, volume increased by 60% year-on-year, and Beijing doubled year-on-year. Second-tier cities also showed signs of recovery, with volume increasing by 8% year-on-year. Hefei, Nanjing, Fuzhou and other markets are heating up, and the volume of transactions has increased by more than 80% year-on-year. The market in Qingdao, Changsha and Xi’an was not as hot as the same period of last year, and the transaction volume was still down. The volume of 53 third- and fourth-tier cities increased slightly by 2% year-on-year, but the cumulative transaction volume in the first quarter still fell by 17% year-on-year. The differentiation between urban markets increased. The volume of transactions such as Zhongshan, Zhuhai and Luoyang rose to a high level, doubling year-on-year. However, the markets such as Guilin, Huai’an and Shaoguan have not seen any substantial improvement, and the volume of transactions has been steadily year-on-year.

In summary, the property market and the local market will pick up, which will inevitably lead to a weakening of policy easing expectations. For the follow-up market development, we have the following two aspects:

First, the real estate market will fluctuate and repeat in the second quarter. The mainland infrastructure and real estate investment will grow rapidly, and foreign trade will have a new turn. Some fluctuations in macroeconomic data will also affect the expectation that real estate control policies will continue to relax. On the other hand, since the second half of last year, the core first- and second-tier markets have started to recover at a low level. Continued “hot sales” have consumed more backlogs of first-hand and improved self-occupied customer resources, which will also lead to weak demand in the later period.

Second, the pattern of urban differentiation is likely to continue for a longer period of time. Benefited from industrial transformation and upgrading, and accelerated population concentration, market demand in the first and second lines and some strong third-tier cities is still supported. Due to the obvious overdraft of market purchasing power, the superimposed sheds changed to monetized gradual exit, and the market prospects of weak third-tier and lower-energy cities were optimistic, and the real estate mar