Will Hong Kong’s property prices fall next year?
2018 has gradually come to an end, what will happen to Hong Kong property prices in 2019? In response to many factors such as the economy, interest rate hikes, and external factors, the market is mostly bearish.
Standard & Poor’s: property prices will fall by up to 10% next year
According to the latest report from Standard & Poor’s, the outlook for Hong Kong’s banking industry is stable next year, but economic growth is showing signs of slowing down. It is expected that property prices in Hong Kong will fall by 5% to 10%. Zheng Hongze, director of S&P’s global rating financial services rating, said that the market is still seeking more than supply for housing. I believe the property market may not have a big drop. Once the property price falls sharply, the government may consider reducing the price. In addition, as Hong Kong banks hold about 30% to 35% of real estate-related assets, including mortgage loans, it is expected that property prices will fall by up to 10% next year. He also pointed out that since the last interest rate hike in the United States, Hong Kong banks have followed the interest rate increase, I believe Hong Kong Bank will continue to observe the trend of US interest rates next year.
Cheung Kong: Nano Buildings can drop by up to 30%
In an interview with the media, Changshi Executive Director Zhao Guoxiong said that the Group had already expected that the Sino-US trade war would inevitably have a negative impact on the economy, and the situation may worsen. Therefore, last year, the new homes were sold out for more than 50 billion yuan. Historical record. He also expects that the economy will be worse next year than this year. It is expected that property prices will fall by 25% to 30% next year.
Zhao Guoxiong said that although the interest rate hike in Hong Kong has been slight, the property prices have soared in the past few years, and the income of the people has not been able to catch up. The burden of mortgages is increasing. He also believes that the Sino-US trade war is a deep-seated contradiction, and it can be solved in a short period of time. It is expected that next year will be a challenging year, and the impact of the trade war on the building will be more obvious. He said that the high-risk “bricks" category, including the two-storey real estate and nano-buildings, especially the oversupply of nano-buildings, is a high-risk category with a drop of 30%. Other “bricks" depend on location and area. The supply is expected to fall between 10% and 20%.
Zhongyuan: The property market adjustment has not ended yet
In addition, the CSI’s CSI was the latest at 44.28 points, up 8.85 points from last week’s 35.43 points, the largest increase since 1992, after February of 2017. CSI rebounded significantly in a single week and approached 45 points, reflecting that the suspension of the Sino-US trade war has eased the market sentiment and the property market has shown signs of stabilizing. However, the CSI is still below 50 points, indicating that the property market adjustment has not yet ended.
Huang Liangsheng, senior co-director of the Central China Real Estate Research Department, said that this week, the CSI is approaching 45 points and is steadily holding the lower limit of the range, ending the low level of 35 points for six consecutive weeks. If the CSI rises above 45 points, the property market will enter a state of good competition. This shows that there will be half of the opportunities for property prices in Hong Kong to rise and fall in the future.
Caiye: The recent property price adjustment is normal
Yesterday, the Financial Secretary, Chen Maobo, said that property prices in Hong Kong continued to be high and the adjustments in the past three months were normal. He stressed that the current situation is different from that of 10 years ago. Whether it is housing supply and demand, mortgage ratio and employment situation, the property market adjustment will not affect the economic and financial system for the time being. The government will maintain a cautious attitude to allow the market to operate naturally and ensure risks. Controlled. In addition, he pointed out that Hong Kong’s economic growth continued to be strong, with a year-on-year growth of 2.9% in the third quarter and a 3.2% increase in the full year.