Expect the property market to see the bottom in the next year, the maximum drop of 20%

The U.S. Federal Reserve will hold another interest rate this month. The market is almost certain to raise interest rates. The property market, which is sensitive to the interest rate, has recently shown signs of adjustment. Xie Yucong, the joint director of Bank of Communications International, expects that the property market in Hong Kong will bottom out in June next year. It is expected that the short-term adjustment will not exceed 20%. It is mainly seen that the short-term adjustment of the property market in Hong Kong will not exceed 20% in the past 30 years, if the decline is 20%. Can be considered for entry into the market.

Mr Tse also believes that the main reason for the adjustment of the property market during the discovery phase is not to raise interest rates. The interest rate hike is not expected to occur in the near future. It is caused by factors such as the HOS policy, the property market and the weakening of the wealth effect, especially the new HOS policy. Let more prospective buyers wait and see on the private building.

As for the mainland property market, Bank of Communications International said that with the economic slowdown in the Mainland, the downward pressure on real estate prices has become more apparent. High property prices may cause the leverage of mainland households to rise to unsustainable levels and affect household consumption levels. If the final leverage is too high to be sustained, it is likely to lead to a burst of real estate bubbles.

The bank also pointed out that if mainland families can afford monthly mortgage payments, then as long as the return on home purchases exceeds the mortgage interest rate, it is reasonable to use real estate investment in leverage. Considering the differences in the real estate market in different regions, the real estate market should also vary from place to place.