One-month interest rate rose by 2%. Hong Kong dollar turned stronger.
After the end of May, the Hong Kong dollar’s interest rate fell overnight from overnight to two weeks. However, the one-month or above interest rate rose across the board. Among them, the one-month interest rate related to the building exceeded 2%, and the Hong Kong exchange was the strongest in the past two months. The Bank of America Merrill Lynch report expects that the geopolitical environment will change, and some Chinese-listed companies listed in the US may make a second listing in other markets, including Hong Kong, so that the Hong Kong dollar will have short-term demand. However, the low interest rate environment will cause the Hong Kong Exchange to touch the weak exchange guarantee. It is estimated that the bank will raise the best interest rate (P) by 0.125% in the second half of the year.
US silver material P interest rate increased by 0.125%
The overnight interest rate fell by more than 0.622% to 1.34972% yesterday. The one-month interest rate rose by 2% to 2.03036%, up by 0.054%. The three-month interest rate was 2.13983%, a slight increase of nearly 0.005%. The Hong Kong dollar strengthened, and it was 7.8335 against the US dollar. It was reported at 7.8361 at 1 am today.
The Bank of America Merrill Lynch report believes that geopolitical changes, Chinese companies listed in the United States may diversify financing channels, may consider second listing in other markets such as Hong Kong and Shanghai Kechuang Board. According to reports, Alibaba’s second listing in Hong Kong in the second half of the year, the report believes that this is a special case, some small-scale Chinese companies or seek to return, may appear in the third quarter of the mainland science and technology board.
The report also mentioned that Hong Kong’s IPO listing activities may increase, which will tighten Hong Kong dollar financing. The demand for Hong Kong dollar by the end of the quarter and Chinese companies will provide opportunities for Hong Kong dollar investors.
However, the low interest rate of the Hong Kong dollar will cause HKEx to touch the weak exchange guarantee of 7.85 this year. By the end of the year, the balance of the banking system may fall to nearly 10 billion yuan, increasing the pressure on capital costs. The report expects that the bank will raise the prime rate by 0.125% in the second half of the year, which is lower than the original estimate of 0.25%, because the US Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates during the year.
Li Ruofan, an economist at Huaqiao Yongheng, stated that the rise in interest rates for more than one month was affected by factors such as half-year settlement, dividend payouts and new fund-raising in June. The market tends to hoard funds and is not willing to dismantle them. It is estimated that the interest rate will rise further. The space is not big, because the recent US interest rate has fallen, and the interest rate difference between Hong Kong and the United States has narrowed.
Seasonal factors fade, Hong Kong exchanges will weaken
Mr. Li Ruofan expects that the Hong Kong dollar will continue to rebound in the short term. However, after the seasonal factors, the Hong Kong dollar will weaken and touch the 7.85 weak party exchange guarantee level. It is not surprising that the bank has raised the prime rate interest rate during the year. In the past, the best interest rate was compared. The one-month interest rate is about 3% higher, and the bank needs to raise interest rates. At the current best interest rate of 5.125%, the one-month interest rate will rise to 2.125%, and the bank will have the opportunity to adjust the best interest rate. At present, bank funds are not too tight. After seasonal factors, they will fall back. In addition, the current loan demand is still weak, and banks have not put too much pressure to raise the best interest rate.
In addition, ICBC Asia has launched two time deposit promotion schemes. New customers or upgrade customers apply for or hold a “live" account during the promotion period and open a Hong Kong dollar deposit with new funds, 5 million yuan or more, and a deposit period of 388 days. The highest interest rate can reach 2.45%. During the promotion period, other customers set up a deposit of 8 million yuan or more with new funds, deposits for 188 days, and the highest interest rate can reach 2.35 percent.