Lu Dong: Hong Kong stocks continued to rise next year, cattle turn a second cattle

In the Tencent (0700), AIA (1299) and Chinese financial stocks led the next, the Hang Seng Index retreated 1.2% last week; summed up the month, the Hang Seng Index fell 1.5% this year, after rising 8 months after the cable. Periphery, the German Chancellor Angela Merkel successfully re-elected, led the MSCI European index rose 3.8% last month. Into the fourth quarter, the stock market will go from here? Today’s cover story visit Lu Dong, director of investment management for China-Hong Kong-owned assets, and Richard Brown, European stock portfolio investment manager at Janus Henderson. Lu Dong believes that the Hang Seng Index rally, optimistic about the real estate sector in Hong Kong, the room has reservations, and Richard Brown that the European cyclical unit with investment value.

China Eastern Port Asset Management Investment Director Lu Dong said that the current market funds are still abundant, Hong Kong stocks short-term consolidation, the season still have the opportunity to create a new high this year. Stock picking, Lu Dong optimistic about the farmland is expected to release the value of the local real estate stocks. However, he worries that with the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates further, and the Mainland will speed up the water supply, the situation of abundant funds in Hong Kong will be reversed next year, when the Hong Kong stocks from the “cattle one” to “cattle two”, during which there will be more Large adjustment.

Ming Pao reporter Ye Chuangcheng

Yi Fang Capital Investment Director Wang Hua in a cover story analysis, if the Fed is really shrinking, investors risk appetite so decline, adverse global stock market performance. The Hang Seng Index fell 276 points last week, from the high down 694 points or 2.5%.

Recalling the performance of the Hang Seng Index this year, starting from the end of last year’s 22,000 points, the first 8 months were recorded increase to September 19 high 28248 points, the cumulative rose 6248 points or 28.4%. Over the past few weeks the market down, in the end is the decline in the trend, or just an excuse to adjust? If it is adjusted, then the extent of how much?

Expected 27,000 points to support this quarter to break the previous month high

Lu Dong forecast, Hong Kong stocks in the fourth quarter is still up the driving force, “I personally hope that Hong Kong stocks this year can be good to the end, that is, even if the Hang Seng Index short-term adjustment is not completed, but later fell to 27,000 points should be supported, It is expected that the Hang Seng Index will appear in the fourth quarter of the year, and later break the September high of 28,248 points. ”

If Hong Kong stocks this year, rising waves, then what shares can pay attention to it? Lu Dong believes that the policy statement will be announced this month. The housing policy is a top priority. It is estimated that the developers will be allowed to use the discounted price to raise land for the construction of Hong Kong people. , So the Hong Kong real estate stocks can pay attention. As a comparison, he pointed out that the central government has recently launched a number of mainland three or four cities to limit the purchase and loan measures, in the case of policy shift, the material housing stocks difficult to extend this year’s strong.

Although Lu Dong on the fourth quarter of Hong Kong stocks cautious optimism, but he was slightly reserved for next year’s market conditions. He described the current Hong Kong stocks in the cattle one, that is, the Hang Seng Index fell to 18278 last year, bear market has come to an end, turn the bear for the cattle, “the Hang Seng Index this year has a feature that even if the overall market rose, but earnings growth And the index increase (according to Bloomberg data, the Hang Seng Index earnings per share equivalent to the Hang Seng Index 2185 points, up 20.7% year on year), that is, price-earnings ratio increased, which is in full compliance with the law of cattle. , This year is basically the plate rotation fried, fried finished network, followed by the car, interior, internal and internal silver, many plates are ideal performance, because the capital is abundant, which is a typical cattle characteristics.

This year the Hang Seng Index rose nearly 30% earnings yet to keep up

Recalling the Hang Seng Index in the 2003 to 2007 bull market performance, the Hang Seng Index fell to 8331 points on April 25, 2003, followed by 10 months to start a strong rise in the March 1, 2004 the highest reported 14058 points, The cumulative increase of 68.7%, Lu Dong that was a typical “cattle a” market conditions, “the economy is not bottomed out, the market panic, but the stock market rising, because the eye-catching money has begun to buy goods”; followed by Premier Wen Jiabao introduced macroeconomic regulation and control Measures, the Hang Seng Index in just two months had plummeted more than two percent, May 17 minimum reported 10917 points, until the end of the year before the break to the top of the show, Lu Dong will be the adjustment period of the bull market Known as “cattle two”.

(Figure 1), because he believes that Hong Kong stocks will be next year, “cattle one” into the “cattle two”, so if the Hang Seng Index in the fourth quarter of this year really high, but slightly “I think the” cattle one “has been to the water tail, and I am worried that next year will enter the” cattle two “, because when the valuation expanded to a certain extent, the market began to demand for profit, if the profit with Not the stock price will naturally adjust.I think the times the “cattle two” may not be a short time, may be one or two years, depending on whether there is no policy with the emergence of a new lead plate, and other profitable basis After a period of time, will appear “cattle three” large-scale rise. ”

China and the United States to speed up the income of Hong Kong stocks next year to adjust

According to Lu Dong’s analysis, the United States and China began to tighten monetary policy at the end of the year, so that Hong Kong’s ample financial environment changes, Hong Kong stocks from the “cattle one” to “cattle two” catalyst, “Although the United States from the end of 2015 to the present Raising interest rates four times, the liquidity of the banking system in Hong Kong temporarily no adverse effects, but the Federal Reserve Chairman Yelun latest forecast, the end of the year will raise interest rates 1 next year and then raise interest rates 3 times, that is, the interest rate will continue upward, In this way, investors will be able to increase their interest rate in Hong Kong dollars. When the global hot money is gradually leaving, I believe that Hong Kong will follow the US rate hike sooner or later. In addition, you should pay attention to the growth of China’s broad money supply (M2) The rate has fallen to near the nominal economic growth rate (Nominal GDP Growth Rate) level, that is to say that the People’s Bank has begun to shrink table, I think when the United States and China are speeding up the water, “The opportunity to turn on” cattle “.

Valuation is expensive, such as Tengchong

(6060) recently raised nearly 120,000 people to subscribe for nearly $ 12 billion, the largest new unit in Hong Kong since the beginning of this year, which is the largest new unit in Hong Kong. Fund raising. The stock was listed on Thursday, the highest reported 70.5 yuan, followed by selling pressure emerged Friday to close at 63.45 yuan, only 6.3% higher than the offer price of 6.3%.