The confidence of the property market continues to decline

The property market has entered an adjustment period, and there have been many strange phenomena in the market, reflecting a decline in home ownership confidence. For example, the blue-chip housing estates are falling faster than the second and third-tier housing estates, and investors are almost extinct in the new market.

In terms of traditional wisdom, blue-chip housing estates have a large number of transactions, and their value-keeping has always been better than that of second-tier housing estates. However, the high prices of second-hand property prices have fallen in recent months, and the blue-chip housing estates have dropped significantly faster. According to the data of the Central Plains, Taikoo City, Quarry Bay, the latest price at the end of October was 19,156 yuan, compared with the high price of the mid-rise market in July, the price was 23,047 yuan, down 17%; the price of Nanfeng New Village in the same district was 7 The monthly rent of 18,071 yuan fell to 17,393 yuan, a decrease of only 3.8%.

In the New Territories, the price of the first city in Sha Tin fell from the mid-July high of 17,926 yuan to the latest 16,054 yuan, a drop of 10%. The same district riverside garden fell from 19,884 yuan to 19,204 yuan, a decrease of only 3.4%. The Tianhuwei Jiahu Villa fell 13% at the worst, but the Baihui Haoyuan rose 5.6% against the market.

The blue-chip housing estates are falling faster than the second-tier housing estates.

The price of the blue-chip estates has fallen faster than that of the second-tier housing estates. The main reason is that there is still a certain amount of trading during the down market. The price reduction of small owners is higher than one wave and the price is falling faster. On the contrary, the second-line housing estates were sold during the fall of the market. Take Nanfeng New Village as an example. In October, there was no transaction in the whole month. In September, only three transactions were made. Therefore, the phenomenon of stagnation is not representative of the second-tier housing estate. More value protection.

Another strange phenomenon is that this year’s Baiju II qualified people swarmed to buy green table public housing units, among which the most common public housing units of 2 million to 3 million yuan, such as the 5th floor of the middle floor of Antao Building in Chang’an Village, the practical area 366 square feet, the transaction price was 1.85 million yuan (not replenished land price), and the property price also hit a new low in the past two years after December 2016.

This kind of concentrated rush to buy public housing units is obviously different from the three-bedroom large-scale units in the past few years. I believe that the price of the property has soared, and the new batch of buyers is concerned with the decline in capacity. However, if you buy 3 million public housing units or more than 4 million homes, green watch buyers can build 90% mortgages, but buyers choose a flat price unit, which is obviously insufficient confidence in the prospects.

New market, investors are almost extinct

It is worth noting that the green watch and home market have already belonged to the niche market, and the green form public housing is more niche. According to the data of the Housing Authority, only 480 green form public housing units were sold in 2017. In the first nine months of this year, there were only 276 cases, and trading was very sparse. Green Form Home Ownership House recorded 1,630 transactions last year and 899 transactions in the first nine months of this year. The theory of nesting in private buildings, the reference value of the housing estates with the largest number of transactions is the largest, regardless of whether the city of Wang and Jing are relatively secure.

Another phenomenon of the property market is that the property market investors intend to fall to a low point in the market, and the number of new customers entering the market has plummeted. For example, the first round of the Lantern Festival in Yuen Long was sold for 504 gangs. In Group A, 24 gangs were sold during the big hand, accounting for 12% of the units sold. Tuen Mun Choi Hai and Yuen Long Shang Yue. Ling, two of which are all priced at 4 million fine units, but the first round of the two rounds of sales have no investors to enter the market, is a rare phenomenon in recent years.

Investors withdraw from the market, in addition to lack of confidence, I believe that mainly because of the gradual rise in bank interest rates, the attractiveness of buying and selling rents has been greatly reduced. According to the statistics of Li Kage Court, the weighted average effective rent for the 50 indicator housing estates in Hong Kong in September was 36.93 yuan, down 1.2% from the 37.38 yuan in August. It was the first decline after half a year earlier. The rental return was again in the same period. Fall back, reported 2.72%. Although it is not a historical low, many banks’ time deposits have been rising recently. Take 1 year of deposit as an example. BOC is 2.25%, HSBC’s is 2.15%, and Chiyou Bank’s 368 days is up to 2.68%, which is better than buying a building. More attractive.