Owners wait for the truce. Will tomorrow be better?
The Sino-US trade war has been suspended for 90 days, but the news will only prolong the wait-and-see period of the property market and increase the differences between buyers and sellers on property prices. It is estimated that in the next one or two months, second-hand trading will shrink again.
The owners are willing to cut prices and increase the price of the flats, prompting buyers to enter the market, stimulating 105 transactions in 10 big estates in November, an increase of 50% per month. However, after the diversification of the disc market, coupled with the Sino-US truce, in the short term, second-hand trading is still sluggish.
Holding price or turning strong
Analysis of the impact of the ceasefire news on buyers and sellers is positive for second-hand small-scale owners. It is expected that the trade war will eventually “rain the sky", and good news will support the property prices. Unless you want to rush out of the building, since the current stage is subject to the buyer’s price reduction, it is better to wait for another 90 days. After the final result is released, the decision will be made.
The owner’s mentality will think that the price will be eroded too early, and it is expected that the industry’s hosting price will become tougher in the next few months, or Ning will not sell.
At this stage, which type of owners have the best chance to be willing to pay the price? It is estimated that it is a long-term tenant who has been holding goods for more than 10 years and entered the market at a low price. For example, Sha Tin Garden City has even Taiwanese households. The original owner entered the market with a price of 1.28 million yuan as early as 2008. After the tenant moved out, the unit was put on sale. The unit finally sold out with 4.35 million yuan, and the book profit was 3.07 million yuan, 2.4 times appreciation. . For investors, the flexibility of funds is the most important. In addition, when the property price enters the market at a low level, it does not mind that the company will leave the market.
Downside expectations remain unchanged
As for the buyers, the new selling situation is still not satisfactory, and the developer is worried that the price will be sold at a reduced price. Secondly, entering the interest rate hike cycle, multiple property price indices have fallen successively. All kinds of arguments and data support, even if the truce news arrives, will not reverse the expectation of falling property prices. Therefore, the Sino-US trade war is suspended for 90 days, which will only increase the wait-and-see atmosphere of the property market. The buyers and sellers will be sawing, and the trading volume of the top 10 housing estates will shrink again in the off-season. It is estimated that the trading volume in December will drop by at least 2,300%. , to about 70 levels.