Deutsche Bank 4 factor property prices fell 10% in 10 years

The property market in Hong Kong has no fear of getting more and more, but the broker is generally bearish on property prices. Deutsche Bank yesterday to vigorously flirtatious, predicted that the property market in the population peaked, aging population, the reduction of new immigrants and labor force down four factors, the next 10 years property prices fell 48%.

Over the past two years, brokers at the end of the year to sing the light next year, property prices, but no matter how the government spicy, property prices upward trend has not changed, the results of many brokerage in the year to adjust their views. Recently, the HKMA has cracked down on the property market, with the exception of clogging about a number of loopholes and tightening the mortgage ceiling. However, property prices are still strong, up 9.7% this year and the Central Plains Leading Index (CCL) for 15 consecutive weeks.

10 brokerage only 2 to see more or less down 5 to 15%

Property prices have risen steadily, but the market’s view of the property market is becoming more common. According to the analysis of 10 brokerage firms, only Nomura and Daiwa Capital are expected to rise in property prices this year. Other brokers are expecting property prices to fall by 5% to 15% during the year. Both Deutsche Bank and Morgan Stanley have said property prices have moved. The year’s fall.

Most of the brokerage to increase supply and interest rates on the grounds, bearish trend of property prices, but Deutsche Bank from the slowdown in demand to assess the prospects for the property market. (2) the reduction of new immigrants; (3) the proportion of the 25 to 44-year-old labor force to the total population will be reduced from the current rate of 29%, and the population will be reduced by the current population. To 26% in 2025; (4) population aging, population over 60 years of age will increase significantly.

In the face of population aging, Deutsche Bank said that the affordability of the property market will be greatly reduced, the capacity of the 30-year-old population will be substantially reduced. Only 11.5% of the population is expected to purchase private buildings in 2019, , To further weaken the affordability, property prices in 2017 to 2026 to fall 48% in order to make the property market supply and demand balance.

It is understood that the German silver market will be stretched to 10 years, is to 10 years with the government’s “long-term housing strategy” for comparison. The government estimated that the demand for long-term housing in the next 10 years would be about 460,000 units, but Deutsche Bank estimated that demand was only 338,000, less than the 429,000 housing supply in the same period.

Deutsche Bank valuation method down 3 real estate rating

Deer said that as more and more Chinese developers come to Hong Kong to invest at high prices, change the local developers to sell the strategy. Based on the fact that the financial strength of Mainland companies is not as strong as that of Hong Kong developers, the pace of sale is relatively fast. Hong Kong developers will no longer be able to sell their flats as in the past. If the value is reasonable, the property development section should be converted to the price-earnings ratio, which is different from the past discounted net asset value.

In accordance with the new assessment method, Deutsche Bank adjusted the developer’s net asset value and lowered the rating of Henderson (00012), Kerry (00683) and New World (00017) to “held”.