The central government lowered the GDP target, the combination of boxing and steady growth, this year’s growth rate of 6 to 6.5%, the tax reduction fee of 2 trillion exceeded expectations.
The second session of the 13th National People’s Congress was opened yesterday. Premier Li Keqiang made a government work report. When the outside world concerned about how China responded to the economic slowdown, the central government lowered the economic growth target to 6% to 6.5% this year and launched a series of Stable growth “combination boxing", including tax cuts and fee reductions, and increased fiscal deficits to prevent economic risks.
The analysis believes that this year’s economic situation is more severe than last year, and small-scale policies are difficult to cope with the current situation. This year’s economic indicators are more flexible, taking into account the reality of economic difficulties and stable expectations.
Think tank: 6.2% growth must be doubled
This year’s government work report set the gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate target to 6% to 6.5%, lower than last year’s 6.5%; consumer price (CPI) rose by about 3%, unchanged from last year.
Huang Shouhong, head of the drafting group of the government work report and director of the research office of the State Council, explained that it is a combination of the current domestic and international situation and the actual economic situation in the Mainland. Due to the more complicated situation and new downward pressure this year, the GDP growth rate in the past two years is Appropriate reductions on the basis of 6.9% and 6.6% are realistic, and the interval target increases flexibility, which is conducive to seasonal fluctuations and stabilizes market expectations.
Regarding whether there is a bottom line for economic growth, Huang Shouhong reiterated that as long as the mainland economy achieves stable employment and income growth, the growth rate is higher or lower, but he stressed that the average GDP growth rate needs to reach 6.2% this year and next. Achieve the goal of doubling GDP by 2020.
Financial strategy to improve efficiency Local debts of 800 billion
In the report, Li Keqiang launched a policy of steady growth in anticipation of the market, with fiscal policy being the first to bear the brunt. On the basis of last year’s proactive fiscal policy, this year the central government further demanded “enhanced efforts to improve efficiency", including the goal of 2 trillion yuan (RMB, the same below) tax reduction and reduction, which was a significant increase from last year’s 1.3 trillion yuan. The scale has also increased by 800 billion yuan compared with last year.
It is worth noting that Li Keqiang gave specific tax reduction measures in response to criticisms from the outside world that “positive fiscal policy is not active".
Zhang Yongjun, deputy chief economist of China International Economic Exchange Center, said that the manufacturing tax cuts of 3 percentage points exceeded expectations. On the one hand, in response to the Sino-US trade war, the international competitiveness of Chinese products was enhanced, and on the other hand, the Chinese economy was also aimed at solving the Chinese economy in recent years. Remove the real problem to optimize the economic structure.
He said that in recent years, the downward pressure on the mainland economy has increased, fiscal revenue will continue to slow down, fiscal expenditures have a clear 6.5% growth rate rigidity, and large-scale tax cuts are difficult. Therefore, the 2.8% deficit rate is pragmatically set, and the decision-making layer boosts expectations. The determination, and in the actual operation, there is still a certain upward adjustment space, to avoid too rigid settings difficult to deal with “unpredictable risks."
The first priority for employment is not mentioned.
This year’s report also puts the “employment priority" policy at the macro policy level for the first time, emphasizing “multi-pronged and stable employment."
The property market policy of concern to the outside world was downplayed this time, emphasizing the steady promotion of real estate tax legislation, promoting the construction of affordable housing and urban shantytowns, and implementing the city’s main responsibility to promote the stable development of the real estate market.
Zhang Yongjun believes that “the housing is not speculating" is to deal with the overheating of the property market. This neutral statement is related to the market trend. Under the “stable property price, stable land price, stable expectations", the desalination treatment will help maintain the market stability.