Da Mo Cai Hong Kong Silver, the fastest next month plus P

After Citigroup announced that it would increase interest rates, there will be several Hong Kong banks to follow. Morgan Stanley estimates that Hong Kong Bank will raise the prime rate (P) for the first time in about 12 years after the next interest rate hike in the United States. It reiterates that it prefers large banks, but at the same time warns of interest rate hikes and local real estate stocks. Avoid developer stocks.

Good bank stocks Hang Seng’s share price has broken

At present, the market generally believes that the United States is bound to raise interest rates again in September; in other words, according to Morgan Stanley’s expectations, Hong Kong will raise interest rates as soon as possible next month. The news stimulated local banking stocks. Hang Seng (00011) hit a new high yesterday, with a high closing price of 216.6 yuan, up 0.3%. BOC Hong Kong (02388) regained a two-month high.

In addition, the Bank of Hong Kong announced a short-term mortgage rate. Chong Hing Bank (01111) Vice Chairman and Chief Executive Zong Jianxin said yesterday that the inter-bank rate hike mainly reflects the increase in capital costs, and the bank will follow other banks to adjust interest rates.

In fact, in addition to Chong Hing Bank, other listed Hong Kong banks have raised their mortgage capping rates. However, Morgan Stanley said that the mortgage accounted for a small proportion of Hong Kong dollar interest-earning assets, only about 15%, and only affected the new mortgages. Therefore, it is not a major factor in widening the net interest margin, and it has no significant impact on earnings, but believes that It reflects that the mortgage interest rate has bottomed out and has a positive impact on overall investment sentiment.

Raising interest rates and weakening real estate stocks

The bank continued to point out that due to the expected increase in P, it will further dampen the atmosphere of local property stocks. It is frank that even if the valuation is attractive, it will avoid developer stocks and prefer to rely on local rent-collection stocks in office buildings and retail stores.

The treasury sector has different views on the trend of the post-market interest rate. Wang Liangxiang, managing director of DBS Hong Kong’s treasury market (Greater China), said that Hong Kong Bank still needs to raise interest rates at the end of next month, depending on factors such as the Hong Kong dollar and capital flows. It is expected to be led by the leading bank. After all, adjust P The impact is greater.

However, Xue Junsheng, head of the Hang Seng Economic Research Department and chief economist, believes that Hong Kong’s short-term interest rate continues to be low and the banking system balance remains at a level of more than 100 billion yuan. It is expected that Hong Kong Bank will only add P to the end of the year.

In addition, the Hong Kong Exchange continued to close to 7.85 weak party exchange guarantees, with a daily low of 7.8499. The treasury sector is estimated to be related to the recent weaker Hong Kong dollar interest rate, which stimulates more carry trades.