Hong Kong’s 12-year-old interest rate hike in the investment sector September prudence Goldman Sachs: the risk of a safe haven in the Hong Kong dollar to evade ING

Hong Kong banks have been away from the 12-year rate hike window, which is reopened with the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision at the end of this month. It coincides with the intention of the United States to expand tariff measures against China this week. The investment community believes that another round of risk aversion will be triggered in the near future. Unfavorable to Hong Kong stocks, remittances and the property market, while increasing the cost of corporate borrowing, fearing to slow down the long-term economic momentum.

Experts suggest that the market outlook needs to look at the direction of the Hong Kong dollar interest rate and fixed interest rate, including the heavyweight new shares of the US group comment on the prospectus will be high demand for borrowing, to measure the bank’s capital costs and adjust the best interest rate (P) pressure. At the same time, we must pay attention to whether the United States will impose tariffs on Chinese goods worth US$200 billion this week, and President Trump’s position on the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) to judge the risk appetite of global hot money.

Under the two major hazes of interest rate hikes in Hong Kong and the Sino-US trade war, Hong Kong stocks have fallen for four months, falling 2,919 points or 9.5%. The last five consecutive months of the market’s decline have been traced back to September 2015, when the adjustment was 26%. In addition, since the leading bank HSBC (00005) added P to 8% in March 2006, the industry has not added P.

Goldman Sachs: If the interest rate rises sharply, P pressure surges

The Federal Reserve announced the results of the interest rate decision in the early morning of September 27, Hong Kong, with a 96% rate hike rate. The same day was seen as an opportunity for Hong Kong to raise interest rates.

Goldman Sachs senior Chinese economic analyst Deng Minqiang believes that the Bureau will raise interest rates once in the current and next quarters, and add four more times next year. It is expected that the spread of Hong Kong and the United States will gradually widen, and trade disputes continue to increase market risk aversion. Increased pressure on Hong Kong dollar depreciation. If global investment sentiment deteriorates, it will even speed up the flow of funds.

He believes that the HKMA can adjust the interest rate increase through Exchange Fund Bills. Generally speaking, Exchange Fund Bills will be renewed when they expire, but in order to release liquidity, the authorities may not renew all the bills. Therefore, whether Hong Kong Bank adjusts P or not depends on the liquidity of the banking system, the interest rate of the Hong Kong dollar, and the interest rate. If the interest rate rises sharply, the pressure on banks will increase.

The Hong Kong exchanges last month more than 7.85 weak parties exchange guarantee level, the HKMA entered the market more than 8 months in a single month, the summary has dropped to about 76 billion yuan.

ING: Or deepen the economic pressure of Hong Kong

Peng Yi, a large Chinese economist at the Netherlands International Group (ING), agrees that Hong Kong has the opportunity to follow the US rate hike this time to avoid the squandering of money and maintaining the link. However, the factors of Sino-US trade war have caused Hong Kong to fall into a dilemma.

She explained that some mainland manufacturers may need to cut down the Hong Kong branch staff to ease the impact of the trade war, which in turn will trigger a knock-on effect that will affect the employment market and the retail market in Hong Kong. “If this rate hike raises interest rates, it will increase the cost of borrowing, affecting cash flow, and then Deepen the economic pressure in Hong Kong.”

She also pointed out that the current market risk aversion is strong, the pace of interest rate hike by Hong Kong Bank will not be too aggressive, and the exchange rate will continue to be weak after the interest rate hike to reflect the flow of funds to the US dollar market.

Zhou Wenling, a senior securities analyst at China Baosheng Private Bank China and Hong Kong market, believes that the impact of Hong Kong’s interest rate hike on the asset market is not direct, but investors are far from the last time to raise interest rates, while watching the latest US tax collection list, I believe Drag down the stock market and limit the rebound, waiting for a clearer reason for entering the market.

Based on the performance of blue-chip US ADRs on Friday, it is expected that the HSI will open 10 points higher and try 27900 points.