Expert: Within the expectations of interest rate hikes, property prices have fallen slightly in the short term.

Hong Kong’s interest rate hike this month is sung into the cloud. However, the investment community generally believes that interest rate hikes are within expectations. It is difficult to shake the property market with unbalanced supply and demand. It is expected that property prices will only drop slightly in the second half of the year, and the negative impacts have been reflected in On the real estate stock price, it is expected that the interest rate hike will not have a major impact on the stock price.

DBS Hong Kong real estate analyst Qiu Zhuowen said that the market has fully anticipated the interest rate hike. I believe that the relevant factors have been taken into account when buying a flat. Compared with a few months ago, the property market in Hong Kong has become stable. I believe the property market will not rise after the interest rate hike. The collapse, but does not rule out, will make the purchase of the building a slight cooling, the property price may fall 1% to 2%.

Real estate stocks have historically low valuations

He continued that the current valuation of real estate stocks is in a historically low position, and the stock price is about 40% to 50% lower than the net asset value per share (NAV). Therefore, the single factor of pure interest rate hike will not have real estate stocks. A major impact.

Zheng Huaiwu, head of China-Hong Kong real estate research at Galaxy Lianchang Securities, agrees that the impact of interest rate hikes on the property market and real estate stocks is relatively small compared to the launch of new housing policies such as Sino-US trade friction, China’s economic slowdown, and vacant tax, as the market two months ago It is expected that Hong Kong will raise interest rates. He believes that the property market will be more cautious in the second half of the year, and the new pricing is also relatively conservative in the first half of the year. It is expected that property prices will be flat with the first half of the year, or there may be a slight decline.

Goldman Sachs senior Chinese economic analyst Deng Minqiang said that according to the average financing cost of the banking system announced by the HKMA every month, it reflects that the current interest rate is still low, the comprehensive interest rate is not high, and the balance of the banking system is still relatively high, even if P is added. And the speed will be relatively mild. Therefore, “the interest rate hike has an impact on property prices but it is not big. Because property prices are not related to the imbalance between supply and demand, there is downward pressure on property prices, but it will not fall.”