Germany silver and then sing the port property prices fell 10 years or less Zhuang too: the population early aging lack of evidence

Deutsche Bank reported that Hong Kong’s population structure is expected to weaken the demand for property markets and increase the supply of the market, so as to reduce the property price forecast for the medium term (2018 to 2021) in Hong Kong. The estimated vacancy rate is estimated from the current 4 % To 9%, and the property price per square foot will increase by 48% per square foot in 2026. Therefore, there is a need for developers to transition to “puerile” strategy. In addition to Deutsche Bank to do big friends, Morgan Stanley also transferred to the property market this year, Citi more in May published a report to describe the property market has peaked. Ming Pao reporter Chen Weishen

Deutsche Bank said Hong Kong’s population growth was stagnant and aging occurred, with over 60 years of age increasing from 22% to 30% of the total population, while reducing the number of immigrants and even 25 to 44 Reduced by 55 per cent of the total population in 1995, down from 26 per cent at 2026. In the aforementioned factors, the restrictions on the financing capacity of the public, drag down the ability to pay. The bank estimates that the number of people with capacity to pay in 2019 will drop to only 11.5 per cent. On the supply side, the estimated average supply of private buildings from 2017 to 2026 is 19,330 units per year, which is much higher than the average of 10,926 per year for 10 years, with an overall surplus of 93,781 units.

In the expected US interest rate in the next two years have the opportunity to raise interest rates 7 times, the mortgage rate in Hong Kong will increase 1.75% during the period, up to 3.75%, Deutsche Bank estimated that the overall property prices by 2026 will drop 48% Balance of supply and demand. Developers can not be as pure as in the past to accumulate land reserves to operate, but need to do goods such as rotation.

Xie Qinghai: the property market bubble opportunities

Credit Suisse said that the property market supply, interest rate and the risk of policy intervention, so the purchase of retail and office properties of the rent shares, much better than the developers, and the need for selective buy. Daiwa said that users and developers have accepted the high real estate prices, and began to accelerate the conversion of agricultural land.

Zhao Guoxiong: Deutsche Bank is only “cut off”

“Chiao Tan Jin Finger,” said the founder of the benefits fund Xie Qinghai to accept “Now News Channel” visit means that no stock market bubble, on the contrary the property market bubble greater opportunities to call the retail investors should be scattered investment. “No one can predict the market situation after 10 years, and it seems that the report is being cut off.” He stressed that as long as the economy was stable, property prices could be raised, and now, the real estate (1113) executive director Zhao Guoxiong responded to the report. Less than the Hong Kong economy is down.

Hong Kong Chinese University Liu ZuoDe Institute of Global Economics and Finance executive director and professor Zhuang Tai also do not agree with the population as a report on the argument is not correct, against Hong Kong property prices and Hong Kong has been the relationship between the population cycle is not, as the report also refers to Hong Kong 25 The proportion of the 44-year-old population to the total population has dropped from 38% in 1995 to 29% in the past. However, property prices have not fallen or rebounded in the past 22 years.