Property market data on both sides of a currency
The Financial Secretary mentioned a lot of property data in his blog yesterday. Tang Rong added that the property market was half a glass of water.
Land supply
In the 2017-18 year, the first two quarters of private housing land supply will be available for a total of about 16,100 units, nearly 9% of the target target of 18,000 units this year.
Tang Rong added: the question is whether the Government is determined to further increase the supply, this year’s new disk digestion rate is relatively fast, close to 1 million in the first half, the annual turnover of 20,000 partners, the government should be fully exceeded the supply.
First hand floor supply
The latest figures at the end of July show that the potential for private housing supply in the next three to four years is expected to be about 98,000 units. Of particular note, some 20,000 units are readily available for sale or pre-sale, and about 20,000 In line with the conditions for pre-sale of uncompleted flats, developers may apply for pre-sale consents at any time.
Tangrong added: the pre-sale is actually in the hands of the developers, apply for pre-sale, after the pre-sale to become the actual market supply is still difficult to grasp, there are developers like to sell long-term flats, Sell.
Add land supply and single hand to absorb the amount
Since the Government has set a target for private housing land supply in 2010, the number of new residential land available per year is more than the number of units in the first hand.
Tang Rong added: As pointed out above, there is an upward trend in the absorption of first-hand floor, and the turnover of second-hand main estates in recent weeks has been extremely low. It is estimated that the second half of the year will continue.
The amount of completion and the amount of work
It is estimated that the average annual completion of private residential units in the next five years will be about 20,300, an increase of about 70% over the average of the past five years. According to past experience, some large-scale residential projects are completed, the rents on the district’s housing market will have a certain impact.
Tang Rong added: In recent years, this large-scale new group of occupation, the supply surge in the impact of the rental market is not obvious, first, the new disk is not large in the past, 1,2 thousand large market, the second is not immediately resale Cargo, the third is a lot of people to buy, the supply of rent as expected, the fourth is a strong demand for rental, support the new disk rental market.
Speculation and investment demand
The government has launched a number of rounds of demand management measures, these measures have successfully crack down on short-term speculation (in recent years, the transaction accounted for an average of less than 1% of residential property turnover), to curb foreign demand (in recent years, the transaction accounted for about 2% of residential transactions) Reduce investment demand (from the peak of 25% to 30% down to about 13% in recent months).
Tangrong added: do have a similar effect, but still can not completely blocked, the mainland Hawker is still too much too much.
Property prices rise
If we compare the selling price index for June 2017 and 2008, we will find an increase of 180% in the price of small and medium sized units (70 square meters in usable area), while the larger area D (residential area) To 159.9 square meters) and Class E residential (usable area of 160 square meters or more) were only 76% and 54% respectively.
Tangrong added: small units investment threshold is low, the ideal return on rent, ultra-low interest to make the building is relatively easy, the initial hot strokes such as mortgage, on the restrictions on the car less money to the influx, self-occupied demand, etc., are created Medium and small units burst up conditions.
Property price index
From time to time in the media reports to see the sale of individual housing prices per square foot “breaking the top” message. However, please note that the property price index, which is now generally referred to, is a lagging index and only reflects the property prices of the secondary market. It does not reflect the property prices in the primary market.
Tang Rong added: This is any one of the inherent lack of property index, to be included in the new disk is not easy.
Interest rates rise risk
In the case of the last US rate hike cycle (2004-2006), the interest rate in Hong Kong will soon be reduced after the rise in interest rates in Hong Kong. We should pay more attention to the risks.
Tang Rong added: the latest interest rate cycle mentioned above, Hong Kong’s interest rate change from 2005 to early 2006, about a year, the Hong Kong best interest rate rate of 9 times the rate hike, the best interest rate rose from 5% To 8%, each rate from 0.25% to 0.5% range, which in July within two months plus a total of 0.75%. During which the high and low point of property prices from 95.4 points (April 2005) down to 88.5 points (November 2005), down 7.2%, down short time, interest rate cycle is more inclined to repeated pattern.
This is a supplement to the Financial Secretary’s data.