If the US raises interest rates next month, Hong Kong Bank will not follow?

Large banks have raised the interest rate of H. The rate of increase is slightly between 0.1 and 0.2%. It is difficult to meet the cost pressure of interest margin. At present, the balance of the banking system in Hong Kong is over $100 billion. If the United States raises interest rates next month, the conditions in Hong Kong still do not follow. Plus, do not rule out the bank to raise interest rates again.

At present, the average number of new buildings in Hong Kong banks is as low as H and 1.3%, which is calculated at 1.5% of the one-month interest rate of 1.65%. The actual interest rate is 2.65%, which is 0.5% higher than the original capping rate of 2.15%. On the other hand, most banks have raised interest rates by up to 0.2%, and the new cap rate has risen to 2.35 percent. In fact, the interest rate differentials that banks have to bear have only narrowed to 0.3%, which is not effective in relieving cost pressures.

Conditional not to follow or add capping rate

Many banks have increased their deposits and offers since the beginning of this season. In particular, small and medium-sized banks are more aggressive, and individual interest rates are better than interest rates. The pressure on small and medium-sized banks is relatively higher than that of large banks.

However, the P or not in Hong Kong mainly depends on the decision of the two leading banks, HSBC and BOC (02388). The second interest rate is still at a rate difference from the Hong Kong dollar prime rate. It depends on the short-term exchange rate, although the market generally expects the US next month. The rate hike will be raised, but there are still conditions in Hong Kong that are not subject to increase.

If Hong Kong does not raise interest rates in September, the pressure on the spread of the bank will remain the same, and the pressure will be getting bigger and bigger. I believe that the bank will have a chance to raise the cap rate again, but it is estimated that the interest rate will remain below 2.6 per cent this year. The overall low interest rate environment remains unchanged.