The periphery is gradually getting pregnant.
Affected by the Sino-US trade war, the investment sentiment weakened in the second half of last year, and the number and amount of transactions fell year-on-year. The industry believes that with the prevailing market conditions, this year’s industrial and commercial shop market is expected to regain its normal track in the middle of the year, and the industrial building will be revitalized by the activation policy.
In the fourth quarter of last year, the investment climate of the industrial and commercial shops was significantly weakened. According to the information of the Central Plains Industrial and Commercial Services, 3,114 trades were recorded in the fourth quarter of 2017, involving an amount of about $135.2 billion. In the fourth quarter of 2018, only 1,542 transactions were recorded. The amount involved was 55.3 billion yuan. The number and amount fell by 50.4% and 59% year-on-year. The number of transactions last month was only 185, down 62% month-on-month, reflecting a quiet year.
Taikoo Shing Center turnover of 15 billion
As for the big-handed trading market, according to CB Richard Ellis’s property sales of over RMB 78 million, the total amount involved in the transaction in 2017 was about RMB 183 billion. Last year, it fell to about RMB 142 billion, a decrease of about 22.4%. In the second half of 2018, the amount of sale was only Recorded 44.7 billion yuan, which fell more than half by 19.2 billion in the first half of the year, indicating that investors will be cautious in the second half of the year.
The investment property market involves a global atmosphere. As the Sino-US trade war broke out last year, affecting investor sentiment and the biggest relationship with the property market, it is difficult for institutional investors to mobilize funds to buy property in the Mainland due to the tight capital in the Mainland. Obviously, the largest property transaction in the whole year last year occurred in the first half of the year. Hengli Group purchased the third and fourth blocks of Taikoo Shing Center from Swire Properties (01972) for about $15 billion. Almost extinct.
In the market outlook, Wang Zhenkang, executive director of CB Richard Ellis Capital Markets Department, believes that last year’s market conditions were mainly influenced by the external atmosphere, and the Sino-US trade war was the key. However, it seems that the negotiations between the two sides have progressed in 2019, and the quiet atmosphere is expected to remain in the first quarter. After that, the atmosphere is expected to improve, and the investment market is not too pessimistic.
Lack of funds from the Mainland
His nail shop market mainly lacks mainland financial support, which reduces the number of purchases and sales. However, the price is hard and the price is stable. He believes that the revitalization policy will be restarted, and the reconstruction of industrial buildings will be able to relax the plot ratio. I believe that the industrial park is the focus of investment this year, especially in the low-water Kwai-wai industrial park, which has the most reconstruction value.
In terms of interest rate trend, the market expects the US to slow down the pace of interest rate hikes. Wang Zhenkang pointed out that since Hong Kong is still in a low interest environment and investors have prepared for it, the interest rate hike has a slight impact on the investment market and is sensitive to foreign exchange funds. .
He pointed out that from 2013 to 2014, he invested in Hong Kong’s property peaks for foreign funds. After four to five years of holding and value-adding, this year’s “shipping" has become a major seller this year. He expects developers to deploy non-sales. Core properties, including commercial buildings and shopping malls, are expected to become another investment focus this year.