US Bank expects a total of 0.25% in the first half of the year.
The Bank of Hong Kong did not raise interest rates with the US at the end of last year. The Bank of America Merrill Lynch report predicts that the Fed will raise interest rates in the first two quarters of this year. With the gradual flow of funds and the gradual increase in interest rates, the best interest rate (P) in Hong Kong will also be The US raised its interest rate after raising interest rates, with a total of 0.25%.
Memorabilia 2019 or only raised twice
The Bank of America Merrill Lynch report predicts that the depreciation of the Hong Kong dollar will be moderate this year, but the Hong Kong dollar will have a chance to fall to 7.85 for the whole year, triggering the HKMA to enter the market. Due to low interest rates, investors will seek returns overseas and depreciate the Hong Kong dollar. The balance of the banking system may fall to 10 billion yuan at the end of the year. The decline in the balance will increase the interest rate. The three-month interest rate will have a chance to climb to 2.5% in the fourth quarter.
The bank revised the US interest rate hike forecast from the previous four times to two times. Hong Kong banks will also raise the P interest rate and deposit interest rate shortly after the US interest rate increase, each time 0.125%, a total of 0.25%. Excluding Hong Kong interest rates will be adjusted outside the Fed’s interest rate cycle. For example, Hong Kong dollar funds may only tighten in the second half of the year. Even if the US interest rate is not increased, the Hong Kong dollar deposit interest rate may also increase.
BOC Hong Kong lowered interest rates
However, the recent Hong Kong dollar interest rate continued to fall. The one-month interest rate related to the flat was down to 1.61071% yesterday. The 3-month interest rate was less than 2%. It is now 1.99214% and the overnight interest rate is 0.50172%. In recent days, a number of banks have lowered their Hong Kong dollar deposit interest rates. BOC Hong Kong also lowered the 3-month to 12-month interest rate of the Hong Kong dollar for electronic channels by 0.2 to 0.22%. The “BOC Wealth Management" customers’ 3-month Hong Kong dollar interest rate was 1.8%, 2.2% for 12 months, and the 3-month fixed interest rate for customers of “Zhiying Wealth Management" and “Private Wealth Management" is 1.6%, and 2.08% for 12 months.
As the interest rate fell from a high level, the Hong Kong dollar also showed a weakening trend. The US dollar against the Hong Kong dollar was reported at 7.8385 at 1 am this morning. The overseas Chinese economist Li Ruofan believes that the Hong Kong dollar will have a chance to fall to the 7.85 level of the weak exchange guarantee this month or the next month, because last year The year-end rate of interest rate hikes has subsided. Although the Lunar New Year is approaching the need for additional funds, the impact on the interest rate is not as great as at the end of last year. The carry-over activity may further reduce the Hong Kong dollar to 7.85.